Madrid Open 2021: Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin preview, head-to-head & prediction

Match details

Fixture: (1) Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin

Date: 6 May 2021

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2021

Round: Third round (Round of 16)

Venue: Madrid, Spain

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Red clay

Prize money: €2,614,465

Match timing: Not before 3 pm local time, 6.30 pm IST

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin preview

Rafael Nadal opened his 2021 Mutua Madrid Open campaign with a commanding 6-1, 6-2 win over 18-year-old compatriot Carlos Alcaraz Garfia on Wednesday.

Nadal, who is in pursuit of a sixth crown at his home event, needed very little time to find his stride; he looked very comfortable in the conditions throughout the match. He now faces the challenge of another fast-rising youngster in Alexei Popyrin on Thursday.

Alexei Popyrin

Popyrin did well to overcome a slow start in his second-round match against Jannik Sinner. The Aussie eventually ousting his in-form opponent 7-6(5), 6-2 after an hour and 34 minutes of play.

The win helped Popyrin extend his win-loss record to 19-7 for the season. That includes a title run in Singapore and his four match wins here in Madrid.

Needless to say, the 21-year-old will be feeling confident about his game going into Thursday's clash.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin head-to-head

Rafael Nadal has an 8-1 win-loss record on clay this season

This is set to be the first meeting between Rafael Nadal and Alexei Popyrin, so the duo's current head-to-head stands at a 0-0 deadlock.

Rafael Nadal vs Alexei Popyrin prediction

Rafael Nadal enters most claycourt encounters as a firm favorite on paper, and this match-up against Alexei Popyrin is no exception. That said, the Spaniard has been made to work hard for some of his recent wins on the surface.

Nadal holds an 8-1 win-loss record on the red dirt for the season, but he has been pushed to the distance in about 50% of those encounters.

The real problem for Popyrin, however, is that the World No. 2 has managed to close out most of those matches even when he was not producing his best tennis. There have been times when Nadal has leaked too many uncharacteristic errors - especially off the backhand wing - but he has usually managed to hang around long enough to redicover his rhythm.

The key for Popyrin will lie in his ability to keep the points short. And the Aussie does have his own strengths - serve and forehand in particular - that he can use to do just that.

Popyrin is still unlikely to win too many long baseline rallies against Nadal, who - if allowed to settle in early - could make quick work of this encounter.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal to win in straight sets.