Madrid Open 2023: Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (5) Andrey Rublev vs (28) Yoshihito Nishioka

Date: Sunday, April 30

Tournament: Madrid Masters 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka preview

Rublev is into the third round.

Fifth seed Andrey Rublev will take on 28th seed Yoshihito Nishioka for a place in the fourth round of the Madrid Open.

Rublev improved to 22-9 on the season by opening his Madrid campaign with a straight-sets win over Stan Wawrinka on Friday. The 25-year-old Russian edged out a competitive first set but fell behind early in the second. However, he reeled off five straight games and served out the victory at the second time of asking.

Rublev has been in fine form on clay this season, winning his first Masters 1000 title at Monte-Carlo and reaching the inaugural Srpska Open final last week (lost to Dusan Lajovic). He's now 9-1 on the surface in 2023 and 4-2 in Madrid. The Russian has had a solid season overall, reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals and Dubai final.

Meanwhile, the 34th-ranked Nishioka improved to 10-7 in 2023 after seeing off Alex Molcan in his opener, having fallen in the Barcelona second round last week. He's now 2-1 in Madrid, having made the second round last year.

The 27-year-old Japanese had a decent start to the season, reaching the Adelaide 1 semifinals and the second week at the Australian Open. However, a four-match losing streak ensued before he returned to winning ways at Barcelona.

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Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka head-to-head

Rublev has won only one of his three previous meetings with Nishioka. Their last meeting in the Washington semifinals last year saw the left-hander emerge victorious. This is their first meeting on clay.

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Andrey Rublev vs Yoshitio Nishioka odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Andrey Rublev	-650	-1.5 (-210)	Over 20.5 (-120)
Yoshihito Nishioka	+400	+1.5 (+145)	Under 20.5 (-120)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka prediction

Nishioka beat Molcan in the second round

Both Rublev and Nishioka are quintessential baseliners, but the Russian takes the edge because of his superior overall game and consistency.

The reigning Monte-Carlo champion can serve big, hit powerfully off either flank and move well, while Nishioka is essentially a counter-puncher with more modest attributes.

Rublev may have come up second-best twice against Nishioka, but he will fancy his chances on clay thanks to his impressive form on the surface. The Russian is 57-30 on clay, winning four titles, while Nishioka is 12-20.

Both men had contrasting opening-round wins, with Nishioka going the distance against Molcan, while Rublev saw off the oldest man in the draw (Wawrinka) in straight sets. Considering that and Rublev's form on clay this season, the Russian should take this one.

Pick: Rublev in straight sets