Madrid Open 2023: Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

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Medvedev (left) takes on Karatsev on Tuesday.
Medvedev (left) takes on Karatsev on Tuesday.

Fixture: (2) Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev

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Date: Tuesday, May 2

Tournament: Madrid Masters 2023

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video


Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev preview

Medvedev is into the fourth round.
Medvedev is into the fourth round.

Second seed Daniil Medvedev continues his Madrid Masters campaign against qualifier Aslan Karatsev in an all-Russian fourth-round clash.

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World No. 2 Medvedev faced a stern test against qualifier Alexander Shevchenko, who went up a set against the 2023 tour wins leader. Medvedev, though, fought back against his compatriot, conceding just one game in the second set to restore parity.

In a competitive deciding set, the former World No. 1 twice found himself a break down before rallying to close out a 2-hour 43-minute win on Estadio Manolo Santana. In the process, the 27-year-old improved to 33-4 on the season and 3-4 in Madrid. Medvedev has had a superb 2023 campaign so far, winning titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami.

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Meanwhile, the 121st-ranked Karatsev improved to 7-7 on the season after upsetting 16th seed Alex de Minaur in three sets. Earlier, this week, the 29-year-old Russian beat Laslo Djere and 23rd seed Botic van de Zandschulp to win three straight matches at a tournament in 2023 for the first time since Pune.

Karatsev is now 5-2 in Madrid, having reached the Round of 16 on his tournament debut in 2021. He lost in the opening round last year.

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Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev head-to-head

The two Russians have split their two previous meetings, leaving their head-to-head tied at 1-1. Medvedev won their last clash in the Mallorca second round last year, but Karatsev took the pair's only claycourt meeting in the Rome second round in 2021.


Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games (over/under)
Daniil Medvedev-400-1.5 (-145)Over 21.5 (-120)
Aslan Karatsev+280+!.5 (+105)Under 21.5 (-115)
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(All odds as per BETMGM)


Daniil Medvedev vs Aslan Karatsev prediction

Karatsev is into the fourth round in Madrid.
Karatsev is into the fourth round in Madrid.

Both Medvedev and Karatsev are quintessential baseliners and have similar gamestyles -- big serve, powerful hitting off either flank and good movement.

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However, Medvedev takes the edge because of his superior consistency and outstanding returning and defending. That was evident in his third-round win over Shevchenko, where he returned a staggering 53 consecutive serves. Nevertheless, for all his prowess on hardcourt, Medvedev is a relative novice on clay, going just 22-24 on the surface.

Meanwhile, Karatsev is coming off an impressive win over De Minaur, blasting 40 winners and breaking his opponent twice. Moreover, he beat his illustrious compatriot in the pair's only previous claycourt meeting.

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However, Medvedev's blistering form is translating to clay, where he reached the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals last week, so he should take this one.

Pick: Medvedev in three sets

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Edited by Shyam Kamal
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