Madrid Open 2023: Holger Rune vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (6) Holger Rune vs (29) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Date: Sunday, April 30

Tournament: Madrid Open 2023

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €7,705,780

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Holger Rune vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina preview

Rune is into the third round.

Sixth seed Holger Rune takes on 29th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Sunday for a place in the fourth round of the Madrid Open.

Playing his first match at the Masters 1000 event, the World No. 7 Rune saved a match point before converting his fifth against Alexander Bublik to extend his winning streak on clay to five matches. He's now 22-8 on the season.

In a hard-fought tussle, the Danish teenager saw three match points come and go before saving one at 7-8 in the third-set tiebreak. Five points later, Rune recorded his second straight deciding-set tiebreak win, having also done so in the Munich final against Botic van de Zandschulp last week.

Rune has had a great run on European clay this season, making the Monte-Carlo final (losing to Andrey Rublev), going 9-1. The 19-year-old has come alive on clay after starting the year with a fourth-round run at the Australian Open and the semifinals at Montpellier.

Meanwhile, World No. 35 Davidovich Fokina improved to 15-11 on the season by seeing off compatriot Albert Ramos Vinolas. Coming off a quarterfinal run at Barcelona last week (lost to eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz), 'Foki' is now 4-3 on European clay in 2023.

The 23-year-old has had a decent season overall, reaching the last eight at Adelaide 2, Doha and Indian Wells. He's now 3-3 in Madrid.

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Holger Rune vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina head-to-head

The two players haven't met before, so their head-to-head record is 0-0.

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Holger Rune vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Holger Rune	-190	-1.5 (+210)	Over 22.5 (-105)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	+140	+1.5 (-165)	Under 22.5 (-135)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Holger Rune vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction

Davidovich Fokina is into the third round.

Both Rune and Davidovich Fokina are quintessential baseliners but have aggressive game styles - big serve, powerful hitting off either flank and good movement. However, the Dane takes the edge because of his superior consistency.

Rune has pedigree on the surface, winning 26 of his 45 matches, including two titles (both in Munich). Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina is 34-28, reaching the Monte-Carlo final last year (lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas).

The Spaniard is the fresher of the two players, winning his previous match in straight sets. Rune, meanwhile, has gone the distance in two matches across tournaments, firing 34 winners past Bublik. Nevertheless, unless exhaustion becomes a factor, Rune should take this one, albeit in a tight contest.

Pick: Rune in three sets