Madrid Open 2024 Final: Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (7) Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Date: May 5, 2024

Tournament: Madrid Open 2024

Round: Final

Venue: La Caja Magica

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €7,877,020

Live Telecast: USA- Tennis Channel | UK- Sky Sports | Canada- TSN+

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Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime preview

Andrey Rublev at the Madrid Open

Seventh seed Andrey Rublev will take on Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final of the Madrid Open.

The Russian received a bye to the second round of the Masters 1000 event by virtue of his seeding. He started the tournament with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Facundo Bagnis and this was followed with another straight-set win 7-6(10), 6-4 over 27th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Rublev then made easy work of Tallon Griekspoor, beating him 6-2, 6-4 to set up a quarterfinal clash against two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz. He defeated the Spaniard 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 to reach the semifinals, where he was up against 12th seed Taylor Fritz.

Both players exchanged breaks at the start of the match but Rublev's decisive break in the last game saw him take the opening set 6-4. He then made a solitary break in the second set which was enough to see him win 6-4, 6-3 and reach his fifth Masters 1000 final.

Felix Auger-Aliassime was unseeded at the Madrid Open and started the tournament with a win over Yoshihito Nishioka after coming back from a set down to win 4-6, 6-1, 6-4.

He then thrashed 19th seed Adrian Mannarino 6-0, 6-4 to book his place in the third round. The Canadian faced Jakub Mensik and won the opening set 6-1 before the Czech was forced to retire early in the second set.

Auger-Aliassime then faced fifth seed Casper Ruud and beat him 6-4, 7-5 to book his place in the quarterfinals. The 23-year-old was supposed to play top seed Jannik Sinner next but was given a bye to the semifinals after the Italian withdrew due to a hip injury.

Auger-Aliassime then faced 30th seed Jiri Lehecka in the final four and won the match after the latter was forced to retire during the opening set, when the scores were tied at 3-3.

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Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime head-to-head

Rublev leads 4-1 in the head-to-head against Auger-Aliassime. The most recent encounter between the two came in the Round of 16 of the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam, with the Russian winning 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-5

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Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over and Under)
Andrey Rublev	-250	-1.5 (+100)	TBD
Felix Auger-Aliassime	+195	+1.5 (-140)	TBD

Odds are sourced from BETMGM.

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Andrey Rublev vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction

Rublev will enter the match as the favorite to win but Auger-Aliassime will be high on confidence to reach his maiden Masters 1000 final.

The Russian has produced some impressive performances at the Spanish capital after a string of poor performances over the past month. His serve and forehand have both been invaluable, and his movement on clay keeps getting better.

Rublev's mentality has also improved enormously and that would come in handy on Sunday.

Half of Auger-Aliassime's six matches in Madrid saw his opponents withdraw or retire during the match. That said, he has had some good wins, most notably the one over Casper Ruud who had been in terrific form.

The Canadian loves to play aggressively and has a powerful serve. He is a powerful hitter of the ball but needs to be careful not to produce too many unforced errors. Auger-Aliassime will also have to be at his best mentally in order to have a chance of winning.

While the 23-year-old is not someone to be written off, Rublev is a relatively better player on clay and he should be able to win his second Masters 1000 title on May 5.

Pick: Rublev to win in straight sets.