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Match Details
Fixture: (7) Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik
Date: April 26, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Third Round (Round of 32)
Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik preview
Seventh seed and defending champion Andrey Rublev will look to keep his title defense on track at the 2025 Madrid Open as he takes on Alexander Bublik in the third round. Rublev has had a middling season in 2025, winning eleven of the twenty matches he has played. He has won a title this season, winning the Qatar Open with a 7-5, 5-7, 6-1 win over Jack Draper in the final.
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Rublev also reached the semifinal in Montpellier, losing 5-7, 4-6 against Aleksandar Kovacevic. Despite these performances, Rublev has had five opening-round exits in 2025. He began his clay court season with a 2-6, 3-6 loss against Arthur Fils in the third round in Monte-Carlo, followed by a 5-7, 4-6 loss against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Barcelona.
He is yet to take the court in Madrid, as he received an opening-round bye due to his seeding and got a walkover from Gael Monfils in the second round.
Alexander Bublik has had a very poor 2025 season so far, hardly winning any matches in the year. The Kazakh player won only two matches in his first ten matches this season, having seven first-round exits. His best result was reaching the quarterfinal in Montpellier, losing 3-6, 2-6 against Aleksandar Kovecevic.
Bublik started the clay season poorly, failing to qualify for the Monte-Carlo main draw and losing 7-6(5), 4-6, 5-7 against Zizou Bergs in the first round in Munich. In Madrid, he began his campaign with a 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4) win against Alex Michelsen in the first round, following it up with a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over 25th-seeded Alexei Popyrin in the second round.
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik head-to-head
The head-to-head is 5-2 in favor of Rublev, with the Russian winning the last match 6-3, 6-4 at this year's Qatar Open.
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Andrey Rublev vs Alexander Bublik prediction
Rublev has a 66 percent win rate on clay, winning six titles on the surface in his career. His last year's Madrid triumph consisted of wins against the likes of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tallon Griekspoor, Carlos Alcaraz, and Taylor Fritz to reach the final, where he won 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Meanwhile, Bublik has yet to reach any clay-court final in his career, with all his eleven career finals coming either on hard or grass courts. He is a former quarterfinalist in Madrid, losing 5-7, 1-6 against Casper Ruud in the last eight in 2021.
Rublev is the clear favorite as he is the defending champion and is fresh, having not played any matches so far at the tournament.
Pick- Rublev to win in straight sets.
