Madrid Open 2025: Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Brandon Nakashima and Flavio Cobolli to vie for fourth-round spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Brandon Nakashima and Flavio Cobolli to vie for fourth-round spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: (31) Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli

Date: April 27, 2025

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Surface: Clay

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Prize Money: $8,619,262

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Sony LIV


Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli preview

World No. 32 Nakashima hits a backhand at Madrid Open | Image Source: Getty
World No. 32 Nakashima hits a backhand at Madrid Open | Image Source: Getty

31st-seeded Brandon Nakashima will face Italy's Flavio Cobolli in the third round of the 2025 Madrid Masters on Sunday (April 27).

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Nakashima has enjoyed a respectable season on the ATP Tour this year, reaching the semifinals in Acapulco and recording back-to-back Round-of-16 results in Indian Wells and Miami. While the American followed up on his impressive post-Australian Open hardcourt season with a semifinal run in Houston, he subsequently lost in the first round of the Monte-Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open, respectively.

Having received a first-round bye in Madrid, the World No. 32 started his campaign with a 6-3, 7-6(3) win against Austria's Sebastian Ofner to reach the third round of the 1000-level event. Cobolli, meanwhile, recently endured an eight-match losing streak in tour-level matches before winning his maiden ATP singles title in Bucharest.

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The World No. 36 Italian subsequently suffered early exits at Monte Carlo and Munich but has since steadied the ship at the Madrid Masters. The 22-year-old defeated Hungary's Fabian Marozsan 7-6(4), 7-5 in the first round. He then received a safe passage into the third round on Friday (April 25) after Barcelona Open champion Holger Rune retired after dropping the first set 2-6 to him.


Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli head-to-head

Nakashima and Cobolli have never met on the ATP Tour so their head-to-head record stands at 0-0.

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Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets Total Games (Over/Under)
Brandon Nakashima+140-1.5 (+290)Over 22.5 (-102)
Flavio Cobolli-185+1.5 (-500)Under 22.5 (-145)
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All bets sourced from BetMGM.


Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli prediction

Flavio Cobolli hits a backhand slice | Image Source: Getty
Flavio Cobolli hits a backhand slice | Image Source: Getty

Although Nakashima is not exactly a claycourt specialist, his stable baseline game is well-suited to the medium-paced surface at Caja Magica. The 23-year-old also possesses one of the best backhand on the ATP Tour, which allows him to hit deep groundstrokes and keep his opponents at bay.

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Cobolli is much more aggressive than the American, with his forehand being the biggest weapon in his arsenal. The Italian is likely to dominate his higher-ranked opponent during cross-court rallies, as the latter has an underwhelming forehand.

Pick: Cobolli to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Tushar Bahl
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