Madrid Open 2025: Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Iga Swiatek vs (5) Madison Keys

Date: April 30, 2025

Tournament: Madrid Open 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: $8,403,780

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys preview

Swiatek at the 2025 Madrid Open (Source: Getty)

Second-seed Iga Swiatek will take on fifth-seed Madison Keys in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Madrid Open on Wednesday, April 30. The winner will face Mirra Andreeva or Coco Gauff in the semifinals.

Swiatek's clay court swing commenced at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, where she fell to eventual champion Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals. With the loss, the Pole extended her winless record against the Latvian to six matches.

In Madrid, Swiatek earned a first-round bye following which she registered a comeback win over Alexandra Eala, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. She then secured a straight-forward 6-4, 6-2 victory against Linda Noskova to reach the fourth round. The Pole then had to dig deep to overcome Diana Shnaider (6-0, 6-7(3), 6-4) and book a place in the last eight.

Meanwhile, Keys arrived in Madrid on the back of a disappointing third-round exit at the Charleston Open. The Madrid Open marked the American's first appearance on red clay this season.

Keys has been dominant so far at the WTA 1000 event. She has secured three consecutive straight-set wins over Lucia Bronzetti, Anna Kalinskaya, and Donna Vekic to reach the quarterfinals. The American has been clinical with her returns, breaking her opponents on 14 occasions so far.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys head-to-head

This wil be their seventh meeting on the tour. Swiatek leads the head-to-head 4-2. However, she lost their most recent encounter in the 2025 Australian Open semifinals.

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Madison Keys	+240	+1.5 (-115)	Over 19.5 (-165)
Iga Swiatek	-300	-1.5 (-125)	Under 19.5 (+115)

(Odds are sourced from BetMGM.)

Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys prediction

Keys in action at the 2025 Madrid Open (Source: Getty)

Swiatek has not looked the most comfortable playing on clay this season. However, the four-time French Open champion is known for her dominance on the surface. She has lost just two of her last 18 matches in Madrid.

Keys must be confident after registering a comeback win over Swiatek in Melbourne. The American can be deadly with her strong forehand and aggressive base game. However, defeating the Pole on clay will be an uphill task.

Hence, Swiatek is expected to come out on top on Wednesday's clash. The Pole's groundstrokes and athleticism on clay should help her edge through this encounter.

Pick: Swiatek to win in three sets.

About the author

Gautham's passion for tennis paved his path to a career in journalism at Sportskeeda, where he has been working for almost two years. Before joining the company, he sharpened his writing skills at The Bridge, covering football as a journalist.

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Edited by Tushar Bahl