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Match Details
Fixture: (22) Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik
Date: April 29, 2025
Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open
Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)
Venue: La Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $8,619,262
Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN+
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik preview
22nd-seeded Jakub Mensik will take on Alexander Bublik in the fourth round of the 2025 Madrid Open. 2025 has been the breakout year for Mensik on the Tour, as the Czech youngster started the season with a couple of quarterfinals in Brisbane and Auckland, losing to the likes of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Nuno Borges, respectively.
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Mensik's biggest moment came at the Miami Open, where he clinched his maiden Masters 1000 title, with a 7-6 (4), 7-6 (4) win over Novak Djokovic in the final. He did not have a great start to the clay season, losing 6-7 (4), 6-4, 3-6 against Yannick Hanfmann in the first round in Munich. In Madrid, after receiving an opening-round bye, the 22nd seed started with a 7-6 (4), 6-1 win over American Qualifier Ethan Quinn in the second round and then followed it up with a 6-1, 6-4 win over 12th seed Ben Shelton in the third round.
Alexander Bublik has been in poor form in 2025, as the Kazakh player has had seven first-round exits. He reached the quarterfinal in Montpellier after winning just one match, and he lost 3-6, 2-6 against Aleksandar Kovacevic. He had a poor start to the clay season as well, failing to reach the main draw in Monte-Carlo and losing against Zizou Bergs in the first round in Munich.
At Madrid, Bublik began with a 7-6 (2), 7-6 (4) win over Alex Michelsen in the first round, following it up with a 6-4, 7-6 (4) win over 25th-seeded Alexei Popyrin in the second round. His most impressive win came in the third round, when he upset the seventh seed and defending champion, Andrey Rublev, winning 6-4, 0-6, 6-4.
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik head-to-head
The head-to-head between the two players is tied at 1-1, with Mensik winning the last match 6-4, 6-4 at the 2025 ABN Amro Open.
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Bublik prediction
Mensik has a 60 percent win rate on clay, but has yet to reach a final on the surface, as both his career finals have come on hard courts. He does have a clay-court title on the Challenger Tour, which he won with a 6-4, 6-3 win over Domnik Koepfer in Prague in 2023.
Of all his eleven career finals, none of them have been on clay for Alexander Bublik. The Kazakh player does not have a single clay-court final, even on the Challenger Tour. However, he did reach the doubles final at the 2021 French Open alongside Andrey Golubev, losing to the French team of Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Nicolas Mahut.
Mensik is the favorite going into this match as he is the more in-form player and is also the higher seed.
Pick- Mensik to win in straight sets.
