Madrid Open 2025: Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Rohit
Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya is one of the third-round matches at the Madrid Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya is one of the third-round matches at the Madrid Open 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (5) Madison Keys vs (30) Anna Kalinskaya

Date: April 26, 2025

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain

Surface: Clay

Category: WTA 1000

Prize Money: $8,403,780

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya preview

Madison Keys at the Madrid Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Madison Keys at the Madrid Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Fifth seed Madison Keys will square off against Anna Kalinskaya in the third round of the Madrid Open 2025.

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Keys received a bye into the second round, where Lucia Bronzetti awaited her. The latter defeated four-time Major champion Naomi Osaka in the first round. The American quickly got a taste of why her opponent ousted Osaka in the previous round after she went 2-0 up to start the match.

However, Keys was able to turn the tables on Bronzetti and broke her opponent's serve twice over the course of the set to take it. She was racing towards the finish line in a hurry but got broken while serving for the match in the second set at 5-2. She then broke the Italian's serve in the very next game to score a 6-4, 6-3 win.

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Kalinskaya received a first-round bye as well, following which she took on Diane Parry. Both players remained steady on serve in the opening set, which then went to a tie-break. The Russian came out on top in it to clinch the set.

Parry landed the first blow in the second set, going up a break to lead 3-2. However, that wasn't the start of a comeback by any means. Kalinskaya nabbed four of the next five games to win the match 7-6 (4), 6-4.

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Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya head-to-head

They've split their previous two meetings to tie the head-to-head at 1-1. Kalinskaya won their most recent encounter in straight sets at the Charleston Open earlier this month.


Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Madison Keys-235+1.5 (-650)Over 21.5 (-110)
Anna Kalinskaya+185-1.5 (+350)Under 21.5 (-135)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Madison Keys vs Anna Kalinskaya prediction

Anna Kalinskaya at the Charleston Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Anna Kalinskaya at the Charleston Open 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Both players came through in straight sets in the previous round. Keys seems to have slowed down in recent weeks after her hot streak, during which she captured her maiden Major title at the Australian Open.

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Kalinskaya flew under the radar for most of the season until she beat Keys in Charleston a couple of weeks ago. It marked her first top 10 win of the season. However, the American won their other encounter on clay at the French Open 2022 in three sets.

Both players are excellent shotmakers with a serve to match. After losing in the first round since 2016, Keys made the semifinals in Madrid last year, her best result at the venue. Kalinskaya, on the other hand, is looking to advance beyond the third round for the first time.

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Keys has a 82-48 career record on clay, which stands out in contrast to Kalinskaya's 28-33 record on the surface. While the American lost their most recent encounter, she will be the favorite to have the upper hand this time given her superior record on clay.

Pick: Madison Keys to win in three sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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