Madrid Open 2025: Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Madison Keys leads Lucia Bronzetti 2-0 in their head-to-head record. (Image credits: Getty)
Madison Keys leads Lucia Bronzetti 2-0 in their head-to-head record. (Image credits: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (5) Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti

Date: April 24, 2025

Tournament: Madrid Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: $8,403,780

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti preview

Madison Keys of the United States returns a shot against Alexandra Eala of the Philippines during their match. Source: Getty
Madison Keys of the United States returns a shot against Alexandra Eala of the Philippines during their match. Source: Getty

This year's Australian Open champion Madison Keys will face Italy's Lucia Bronzetti in her opening match at the Madrid Open 2025 on Thursday, April 24. It will be their third meeting on the WTA Tour.

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World No. 5 Keys had a great start to the season and won 18 out of her first 19 matches in 2025. But then she lost three out of her next five matches. She was stunned by Alexandra Eala in straight sets at the Miami Open last month.

The 30-year-old played the Charleston Open earlier this month and suffered another upset loss against Anna Kalinskaya in the third round. She has a 1-1 win-loss record on clay and 20-4 overall win-loss record in 2025.

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World No. 59 Bronzetti defeated the former World No. 1 Naomi Osaka 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 in the first round. It was her first win of the clay court season in 2025 after losing her previous two clay court matches in Charleston and Rouen.

Lucia Bronzetti celebrates after winning the match between Japan's Naomi Osaka and Italy's Lucia Bronzetti of the Mutua Madrid Open. Source: Getty
Lucia Bronzetti celebrates after winning the match between Japan's Naomi Osaka and Italy's Lucia Bronzetti of the Mutua Madrid Open. Source: Getty

Bronzetti has a 10-11 win-loss record in 2025. She has beaten three former World No. 1s in 2025, as she defeated Victoria Azarenka at the Australian Open, Simona Halep at the Transylvania Open, and Osaka in Madrid.

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Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti head-to-head

Madison Keys leads Lucia Bronzetti 2-0 in their head-to-head record. Keys defeated the Italian in straight sets at the 2023 United Cup and 2025 ASB Classic in Auckland.


Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti odds

Player NameMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Naomi OsakaTBDTBDTBD
Lucia BronzettiTBDTBDTBD
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(Odds will be updated once available)


Madison Keys vs Lucia Bronzetti prediction

Madison Keys is making her 11th main draw appearance at the Madrid Open and she has a 7-10 win-loss record at the event. She failed to win a match at the Madrid Open from 2017 to 2022, but reached the semifinals in Madrid last year.

Keys defeated Coco Gauff and Ons Jabeur at the Madrid Open last year, before losing to Iga Swiatek. Her best result at a clay court WTA 1000 event was reaching the final of the 2016 Italian Open, when she lost to Serena Williams in the final. Keys has won two WTA titles on clay in her career.

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Lucia Bronzetti has not reached the third round at any clay court WTA 1000 event in her career yet. Bronzetti was able to defeat Osaka as the four-time Grand Slam champion was playing her first match on clay. But Keys will be better prepared, and the American will be the favorite to win this match.

Keys knows the conditions well and she is much more experienced. It will be a must-win match for her as she will be eager to remain World No. 5 in the WTA Rankings.

Pick: Madison Keys to win in straight sets

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Edited by Tushar Bahl
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