Madrid Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper preview, head-to-head, prediction, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Tommy Paul (11) vs Jack Draper (5)

Date: April 30, 2025

Tournament: Madrid Open 2025

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Park Manzanares, Madrid, Spain

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: $8,619,262

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper preview

Mutua Madrid Open - Day Eight - Source: Getty

Tommy Paul and Jack Draper will play in the fourth round of the Madrid Open. Draper has come through two impressive matches to reach this stage - he defeated Tallon Griekspoor 6-3, 6-4, and took the first set on a tie-break from Matteo Berrettini, before the Italian retired from the match, citing an abdominal injury.

Tommy Paul's route to the fourth round has been tortuous, but no less impressive. The American needed two tough tie-breaks in the opening round to turn back the challenge of 18-year-old wonderkid Joao Fonseca 7-6(7), 7-6(3), and then needed three sets to defeat Karen Khachanov.

Draper's clay-court season did not begin well when he was knocked out of the Monte Carlo Open in the second round by Alejandro Davidovich, while Paul dropped down a level to the ATP 250 event in Houston and performed well to reach the semifinals, where he was beaten by eventual champion Jenson Brooksby.

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Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper head-to-head

Tommy Paul and Jack Draper have played five times on the ATP Tour, with the British player currently leading 3-2. Their most important encounter was at the last sixteen stage of the Australian Open in 2024, which Paul won 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. The two have never met on a clay court.

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Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Tommy Paul	TBC	TBC	TBC
Jack Draper	TBC	TBC	TBC

(All odds sourced from BetMGM will be added when available)

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Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper prediction

Mutua Madrid Open - Day Five - Source: Getty

World No. 6 Jack Draper is enjoying his best year yet on tour, culminating in a scintillating victory at Indian Wells, where he played some of the best tennis of his career to capture the title. He's not a natural clay court player, however - in 2024, the Englishman played in seven tournaments on the dirt, and only won five matches.

Tommy Paul's clay-court performances have also been mixed - the World No. 12 has an overall career record of 27-28 on the surface, and his best performance on clay was at last year's Italian Open, when he fought through to the semifinal, taking Daniil Medvedev's scalp along the way.

Draper's overall form in 2025 gives him a slight advantage over Paul. If he plays his best tennis, expect him to edge a tight encounter, but need all three sets to do so.

Pick: Jack Draper to win in three sets.