Madrid Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov to vie for fourth-round spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty
Tommy Paul and Karen Khachanov to vie for fourth-round spot at Madrid Open 2025 | Image Source: Getty

Match Details

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Fixture: (11) Tommy Paul vs (24) Karen Khachanov

Date: April 28, 2025

Tournament: Mutua Madrid Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 32)

Venue: Caja Magica, Madrid, Spain

Surface: Clay

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Prize Money: $8,619,262

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Sony LIV


Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov preview

World No. 12 Paul hits a backhand at Houston Open | Image Source: Getty
World No. 12 Paul hits a backhand at Houston Open | Image Source: Getty

11th-seeded Tommy Paul will face 24th-seeded Karen Khachanov in the third round of the 2025 Madrid Masters on Monday (April 28).

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Paul had initially enjoyed a respectable start to his campaign on the ATP Tour this year, reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and the semifinals in Adelaide, Dallas, and Houston. The American then took a few weeks' break due to injury.

The time away from tennis has seemingly helped the 27-year-old if his performance in Madrid thus far is anything to go by. Having received a first-round Bye, the World No. 12 saved four set points across two sets to see off fast-rising Joao Fonseca 7-6(7), 7-6(3) in just over two hours to reach the third round of the 1000-level event.

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Khachanov, meanwhile, had endured a tough season before arriving at Caja Magica, having dropped nine of his first 17 matches in 2025. The Russian has put together a good showing at the Madrid Open this week, beating former World No. 17 Reilly Opelka 7-6(3), 7-6(4) in the second round.


Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov head-to-head

Paul leads Khachanov 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The American defeated the Russian in three sets in the second round of the 2022 Miami Masters.

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Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap Bets Total Games (Over/Under)
Karen Khachanov+118-1.5 (+240)Over 22.5 (-115)
Tommy Paul-155+1.5 (-400)Under 22.5 (-125)
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All bets sourced from BetMGM.


Tommy Paul vs Karen Khachanov prediction

Karen Khachanov recently reached SFs in Monte Carlo | Image Source: Getty
Karen Khachanov recently reached SFs in Monte Carlo | Image Source: Getty

Paul has been getting underneath the ball well in Madrid, where he has yet to go past the third round. The 11th seed's quick-strike style of play along with his dependable game make him a dark horse at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament.

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Like his higher-ranked opponent, Khachanov also possesses heavy groundstrokes on both wings. The 6'6 big-hitter's first serve will help him stand his ground against a returner of Paul's caliber on the medium-paced claycourts at Caja Magica.

The keys to winning this match for both players will be to play percentage tennis and dominate serve-return dynamics. The former World No. 8 Russian's return is subpar, meaning his chances against the World No. 12 will be far and few in between.

Pick: Paul to win in straight sets.

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Edited by Mitali
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