Miami Open 2023: Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match details

Fixture: (10) Elena Rybakina vs (21) Paula Badosa

Date: March 25, 2023

Tournament: Miami Open 2023

Round: Third round (Round of 32)

Venue: Miami Gardens, Florida, United States

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize money: $8,800,000

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa preview

For the second time in as many tournaments, Elena Rybakina and Paula Badosa will lock horns in the third round, with the two set to meet at the Miami Open on Saturday.

Rybakina, the 10th seed at this year's event, is in good form, having just lifted a maiden WTA 1000 trophy at Indian Wells. The reigning Wimbledon champion ousted the likes of Iga Swiatek, Sofia Kenin and Karolina Muchova before avenging her Australian Open loss to Aryna Sabalenka in the summit clash.

Looking to back up her stellar performance, the Kazakh got off to a rocky start — needing three sets to get past Anna Kalinskaya in her Miami opener.

Badosa will be looking to avenge her Indian Wells loss.

Badosa also needed three sets to fend off Laura Siegemund in her last match. The Spaniard overcame some poor patches, nine double faults and some spirited hitting from her opponent to book her spot in the last-32.

Having already lost to Rybakina at the same stage in Indian Wells, Badosa will come into this encounter looking to do things differently. Barring a semifinal run at the Adelaide International 2 back in January, the Spaniard has not had any good results in 2023. But she definitely possesses the game to turn things around for herself.

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Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa head-to-head

Badosa leads Rybakina in their current head-to-head with a 4-2 margin. Prior to their Indian Wells showdown, the Spaniard had won three consecutive matches against her opponent.

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Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over & Under)
Paula Badosa	+225	+3.5 (+100)	21.5 (-110)
Elena Rybkina	-300	-3.5 (-140)	21.5 (-125)

(Odds sourced from BetMGM)

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Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa prediction

Rybakina is on a nine match-winning streak.

Elena Rybakina has not lost a match since bowing out of the Abu Dhabi Open. She did withdraw from her encounter against Coco Gauff in Dubai, but has looked in great touch since coming back to action in Indian Wells.

The Kazakh peaked in her match towards the business end of the WTA 1000 event last week, beating the top-2 players in the world — Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka — in convincing fashion.

That said, Paula Badosa can take a leaf out of Kalinskaya and Karolina Muchova's book. The two players managed to push the Kazakh out of her comfort zone by bringing her into the net and mixing the spin of the groundstrokes.

Feeding pace isn't always the best option against Rybakina, who can punish her opponents once she settles into a rhythm. Badosa, however, is not particularly known for her variety. Unless she can find a way to mix things up, she risks walking into the Rybakina trap again.

Prediction: Rybakina to win in two tight sets.