Miami Open 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Joao Fonseca preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (10) Alex de Minaur vs Joao Fonseca

Date: March 24, 2025

Tournament: Miami Open 2025

Round: Third Round

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, US

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel / TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

---

Alex de Minaur vs Joao Fonseca preview

BNP Paribas Open - Day 8 - Source: Getty

Alex de Minaur and Brazilian Joao Fonseca will contest the third round of the Miami Open in Florida. Australian de Minaur has started 2025 well. He reached the quarterfinal in Melbourne in January but was comfortably beaten in straight sets by eventual champion Jannik Sinner.

The 26-year-old then progressed to the Rotterdam final and extended World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz to three sets before losing 4-6, 6-3, 2-6. After a quarterfinal loss to Andrey Rublev in Qatar, he was dumped out of Dubai early and then suffered a surprising loss to Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 16 last week in Indian Wells.

Fonseca, the ATP's 60th-ranked player, has impressed en route to the third round in Miami. The 18-year-old is one for the future. After going out in the second round at the Australian Open, he won the Argentina Open beating Francisco Cerundolo in the final 6-4, 7-6(1). An early exit in Rio was then followed by a second-round defeat to eventual champion Jack Draper at the BNP Paribas Open.

---

Alex de Minaur v Joao Fonseca head-to-head

Alex De Minaur and Joao Fonseca have never played on the ATP Tour, so the current head-to-head is 0-0.

---

Alex de Minaur vs Joao Fonseca odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Alex de Minaur	-136	-3.5 (+185)	Over 12.5 (-137)
Joao Fonseca	+110	+3.5 (-250)	Over 12.5 (-117

All odds sourced from BetMGM

---

Alex de Minaur v Joao Fonseca prediction

Miami Open Presented by Itau 2025 - Day 5 - Source: Getty

Alex de Minaur is the more experienced campaigner - he has 9 ATP tour titles to his name and has competed at a higher level. The Australian is currently ranked No. 11 in the world but is tipped to return to the top ten this year.

Fonseca has shown some frailty earlier in the tournament, appearing unwell during his win over Learner Tien. He showed no discomfort in an impressive win over Frenchman Ugo Humbert in the last round, winning 6-4, 6-3.

Meanwhile, De Minaur breezed through his Round of 64 match, defeating Chinese player Yunchaokete Bu 6-4, 6-2. The Australian's form is erratic, and Fonseca is precisely the type of young gun who could expose de Minaur if he's anything below his best.

Pick: Alex de Minaur in three sets.