Miami Open 2025: Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (32) Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Date: March 21, 2025

Tournament: Miami Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Sony LIV

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Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli preview

Camilo Ugo Carabelli reached the semifinals at Rio Open and Chile Open | Image Source: Getty

32nd-seeded Alex Michelsen will face Argentina's Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the second round of the 2025 Miami Open on Friday (March 21).

Michelsen has enjoyed a career-best season on the ATP Tour this year so far. The American has compiled an 11-7 win/loss record across eight tour-level events. The highlights of his 2025 campaign came at the Australian Open, where he reached the fourth round. These results helped him achieve a new career-high ranking of 32nd in the world.

Ugo Carabelli, meanwhile, has also been in the form of his life this year. Having been mainly a Challenger-level player previously, the 25-year-old reached back-to-back semifinals in Rio and Santiago to climb to a career-high ranking of No. 61.

The Argentine lost in the final qualifying round of the Miami Masters but received a lucky-loser entry into the ATP Masters 1000 tournament. He made the most of it, beating American qualifier Brandon Holt 2-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 to reach the second round of the Florida event.

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Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli head-to-head

Michelsen and Ugo Carabelli's head-to-head record stands at 0-0, since the two players have never met on the ATP Tour. The American did, however, defeat his older opponent at the 2023 Tallahassee Challenger.

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Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Alex Michelsen	-375	-1.5 (-145)	Over 21.5 (-120)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli	+275	+1.5 (-102)	Under 21. 5 (-118)

All bets sourced from BetMGM.

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Alex Michelsen vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction

World No. 33 Michelsen prepares to hit a backhand | Image Source: Getty

Although Alex Michelsen has a large frame at 6'4, he is an adept attacker from the baseline. The 20-year-old is also capable of hitting huge serves, albeit with less consistency. The World No. 33 will be eager to go deep at his home country event and follow up on his third-round result at this year's Indian Wells Masters.

Ugo Carabelli, on the other hand, is a claycourt specialist owing to his loopy, high-margin groundstrokes. The Argentine World No. 65 does struggle with holding his serve though, which means that he will have to fight hard to maintain scoreboard pressure on his higher-ranked opponent.

All in all, while the lucky loser has much more match practice in Miami this week, Michelsen should likely have enough firepower to put him away in their second-round encounter.

Pick: Michelsen to win in straight sets.