Miami Open 2025 Draw: Carlos Alcaraz's projected path to the final ft. potential QF with Tommy Paul and SF with Novak Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz will be vying for his first triumph at the Miami Open in three years. The Spaniard will also be eager to win his first tour-level outdoor hardcourt title since the 2024 China Open last October.

The World No. 3 has endured a difficult campaign in 2025 given his lofty standards. Although he recorded his maiden title victory on indoor hardcourts at the Rotterdam earlier in February, the four-time Major winner has been lacking in consistency.

Moreover, in Jannik Sinner's absence from the ATP Tour owing to his doping suspension, the 21-year-old hasn't been able to narrow down the Italian's World No. 1 lead. Alcaraz's last two defeats in particular were uncharacteristic, as he lost to Jack Draper and Jiri Lehecka the semifinals of the Indian Wells Masters and the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open, respectively.

Seeded second in Miami, the young Spaniard has received a moderately difficult draw with a potential rematch against his arch-rival Novak Djokovic looming. Let's take a look at his potential opponents at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Florida.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 2R opponent - Aleksandar Vukic/David Goffin

Having received a first-round bye at the Miami Open, Carlos Alcaraz will open his campaign against the winner of the first-round clash between Australia's Aleksandar Vukic and former World No. 7 David Goffin. While the World No. 3 leads Vukic 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings, he is tied 1-1 with Goffin.

The 21-year-old should come through the second-round match-up comfortably if he is at the top of his game.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 3R opponent - Brandon Nakashima

Alcaraz will then likely face 31st seed Brandon Nakashima for a place in the fourth round of the Florida event. The second seed has a 1-0 edge over the American but their lone tour-level meeting came at the 2021 NextGen ATP Finals, which employed a different format from the conventional six-games-to-win best-of-three sets.

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Carlos Alcaraz's 4R opponent - Grigor Dimitrov

Grigor Dimitrov beat the Spaniard at last year's Miami Open | Image Source: Getty

Provided Carlos Alcaraz navigates past the formidable Nakashima's challenge, the going will get tougher for him as 2024 finalist Grigor Dimitrov potentially awaits him in the Round of 16. While the Spaniard leads his older rigal by a margin of 4-2 in their head-to-head records, the latter has defeated him on hardcourts on multiple occasions.

The former World No. 3 beat Alcaraz for the loss of just six games in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open last year. And while the Spaniard returned the favor at this year's BNP Paribas Open, he would still have his work cut out against the Bulgarian if they were to meet.

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Carlos Alcaraz's QF opponent - Casper Ruud/Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul has always troubled World No. 3 Alcaraz | Image Source: Getty

The 21-year-old could face former World No. 2 Casper Ruud or 12th-seeded Tommy Paul for a place in the semifinals of the Miami Open. While the four-time Major winner downed Ruud in their 2022 title clash at the Masters-level event in Florida, he did lose to the Norwegian in their most recent meeting at last year's ATP Finals.

Paul, on the other hand, trails Alcaraz 2-4 but has defeated him on outdoor hardcourts twice. Thus, the second seed would have to be at his best physically and mentally to get past either opponent.

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Carlos Alcaraz's SF opponent - Novak Djokovic/Daniil Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz lost to Novak Djokovic in Australian Open 2025 QFs | Image Source: Getty

Provided he reaches this far, the Spaniard will likely take on six-time Miami Open champion Novak Djokovic or 2023 titlist Daniil Medvedev. Djokovic notably bested Alcaraz in a high-quality four-set affair at the Australian Open in January, meaning the latter will have revenge on his mind.

Medvedev also beat the youngster at the 2023 US Open semifinals, marking the Russian's only victory against the then-World No. 1 on outdoor hardcourts. Both match-ups would potentially be tough for the four-time Major winner.

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Carlos Alcaraz's final opponent - Alexander Zverev/Jack Draper/Taylor Fritz/Andrey Rublev

Alexander Zverev is looking to make amends for his poor form in Miami | Image Source: Getty

Carlos Alcaraz's potential opponents for the Miami Open title could be any player between World No. 2 Alexander Zverev, Indian Wells titlist Jack Draper, third-seeded Taylor Fritz, and eighth-seeded Andrey Rublev.

Although Alcaraz leads Draper and Fritz in their respective head-to-head meetings on outdoor hardcourt, the Spaniard did lose to the Brit at the BNP Paribas Open last week. Zverev, meanwhile, is tied 2-2 with the Spaniard on outdoor hardcourts and will be a force to reckon with if he were to reach the final.