Miami Open 2025 final: Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (4) Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik

Date: March 30, 2025

Tournament: Miami Open 2025

Round: Final

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, US

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports

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Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik preview

The 37-year-old at the Miami Open (Image Source: Getty)

Fourth seed Novak Djokovic will face teenager Jakub Mensik in the final of the Miami Open in search of his 100th ATP singles title. The Czech, on the other hand, will vie for his maiden singles title.

The Serb has won 12 out of 16 matches so far in the 2025 season, with his first final coming at the ongoing Masters 1000 event in Miami. He received a bye to the second round and started his campaign with a 6-0, 7-6(1) win over Rinky Hijikata.

Djokovic then registered straight-set wins over Camilo Ugo Carabelli, 15th seed Lorenzo Musetti, and 24th seed Sebastian Korda to set up a semifinal clash with 14th seed Grigor Dimitrov. The Serb produced a fine performance to beat the Bulgarian 6-3, 6-4, and book his place in the Miami Open final for the first time since 2016.

Jakub Mensik has won 13 out of 19 matches so far in the 2025 season and has had some run in Miami. The Czech teenager started his campaign with a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 win over Roberto Bautista before registering one of the upsets of the tournament with a 7-6(2), 7-6(3) victory over Indian Wells champion Jack Draper to reach the third round.

Mensik then triumphed 6-4, 6-4 over Roman Safiullin to set up a fourth-round clash with 20th seed Tomas Machac. Machac withdrew from the match due to an injury, thus giving the teenager a place in the quarterfinals.

Here, Mensik beat 17th seed Arthur Fils to set up a semifinal clash with Taylor Fritz. The match was a thriller and the Czech teenager managed to edge out the American 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(4) to reach his maiden Masters 1000 final.

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Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik head-to-head

The only prior encounter between the two came in the quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters, with the Serb coming back from a set down to win 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-4.

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Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Novak Djokovic	-400	-1.5 (-145)	Over 22.5 (-110)
Jakub Mensik	+320	+1.5 (+100)	Under 22.5 (-135)

Odds sourced from BETMGM.

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Novak Djokovic vs Jakub Mensik prediction

Djokovic will enter the match as the heavy favorite to win given his experience. That said, Mensik has had an impressive run so far, and considering he won a set the last time these two players faced, the Czech should not be written off.

The Serb's first-serve numbers have been good so far in Miami, having won 168 out of 208 points, while amassing 36 aces. The 37-year-old also produced 84 winners while hitting 71 unforced errors. Along with his aggression, the 24-time Grand Slam winner will look to fetch as many aces as he can and put pressure on his younger opponent from the start.

Jakub Mensik's serve has been a crucial part of his game plan in Miami, with the Czech serving 97 aces and winning 217 out of 256 points (84.8%) on his first serve. The teenager's serve will no doubt be put to the test against Djokovic and it will be crucial for him not to have it broken.

It could eventually come down to composure and the Serb's superior experience and mentality should see him get the win and become only the third player in the Open Era to clinch 100 singles titles.