Miami Open 2025: Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (12) Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik

Date: March 21, 2025

Tournament: Miami Open 2025

Round: Second Round (Round of 64)

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida, United States

Category: ATP Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor hardcourt

Prize Money: $9,193,540

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN | India - Sony LIV

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik preview

Alexander Bublik hits a backhand | Image Source: Getty

12th-seeded Tommy Paul will face Kazakhstan's Alexander Bublik in the second round of the 2025 Miami Open on Friday (March 21).

Bublik recently fell to a lowly 82nd in the world after enjoying a year-end top-50 tenure over the last five seasons. Before arriving in Miami, the 27-year-old had lost three back-to-back tour-level matches, including a first-round exit at the Indian Wells Masters. However, he made plenty of amends at the Phoenix Challenger by reaching the final, where he was defeated by the fast-rising Joao Fonseca in two tight sets.

Having reached the quarterfinals of the Florida event in 2021, the former World No. 17 opened his campaign at the tournament this week with a commanding first-round victory against World No. 36 Sebastian Baez.

Paul, meanwhile, has enjoyed a career-best start to his tour-level season this year, recording a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open and reaching as high as 9th in the ATP rankings in January. Although the American has considerably slowed down since then, he will be eager to improve on his result of reaching the second round in Miami last year.

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik head-to-head

Paul leads Bublik by a margin of 2-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The American won their only encounter on hardcourt at the 2021 Rotterdam Open.

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Alexander Bublik	+270	-1.5 (+475)	Over 21.5 (-135)
Tommy Paul	-375	+1.5 (-1100)	Under 21.5 (-105)

All bets sourced from BetMGM.

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Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik prediction

Tommy Paul reached the fourth round at Indian Wells | Image Source: Getty

Bublik has some of the biggest groundstrokes on the ATP Tour. Morever, at 6'5, the 27-year-old can also fire down some huge serves. That said, his consistency on his shots and first delivery are both suspect. For what it's worth, though, the World No. 80 is able to come up with some impressive finesse play when his ground game isn't working.

Paul, who is himself a great shotmaker, can also turn up with the court smarts. And while the American doesn't have the biggest serve, he hits his spots with startling consistency. The World No. 13's return game is formidable, as well, making him one of the most well-rounded players on the men's circuit.

The key to winning for both players will be to maintain a healthy winners-to-unforced errors ratio and dominate cross-court rallies. Bublik, on his part, has been very up-and-down with his form lately, giving his higher-ranked opponent an edge in their second-round clash at the 2025 Miami Open.

Pick: Paul to win in straight sets.