Milos Raonic vs Roger Federer - A preview of their first Grand Slam meeting

Fetching abilities of his fleet-footed opponents and big first serves to his backhand are the two things which can shake the otherwise flawless game of Roger Federer. Fortunately for him, Bernard Tomic, who was the Swiss Maestro’s opponent yesterday in the third round of Australian open 2013, seemed to possess neither of these two efficacies in his repertoire to force an upset. So for the second straight year, the Swiss was able to blow away the hype which was created by a few tennis experts and fans who foresaw an early exit for him.

Trouncing the Australian in straight sets, Federer eased his way into the round of sixteen – as he does quite so regularly and effortlessly during the initial rounds of most of the Grand Slams – where he will meet another promising youngster, Milos Raonic of Canada. If anything, between the two – Tomic and Raonic – the latter would be able to pose a better challenge to the Swiss Master. I’m not exactly saying right away that the Canadian is going to score an improbable victory in the fourth round against Fedex, but he may surely be able to push the great man to the limit. If his past record against the Swiss are anything to go by, then there is no reason for us not to believe that he can do it.

Like I said before, Federer’s one-handed backhand is susceptible to huge first serves, and if anyone can exploit that weakness, it has to be Raonic who, by the way, served the most number of aces during last year’s season. The 13th seed may not be a fast mover on the court but he makes up for that by firing intimidating serves at his adversaries. So should that be a problem at all for the Maestro, who has the ability to keep most of his returns on play? Theoretically speaking, it should not. That’s what most of us would think because he has stood toe-to-toe with many such top quality servers in his career so far.

However, facts are facts and we cannot overlook them. Roger does have a 100% winning record against the youngster, but in the previous two matches they played (one at Madrid and the other at Halle), the latter nearly upset the 17-time Grand Slam champion. Not only did he succeed in winning the first set on both the occasions, but he also made sure that the matches were decided only with the help of the third set tie-breaker. This should speak volumes of how tough the fourth round combat is going to be for the second-ranked Swiss.

It is just not Raonic’s serve which can bother the four-time Australian Open champion. In addition to his ability to serve big ones, he is also equipped with the ability to hit blistering forehands from the baseline, something that could wear Federer down a bit. The one thing that should help Federer’s cause is that unlike Nadal’s forehand cross court which would land on his backhand corner, the Canadian’s crosscourt forehand would land only on his forehand corner, which is considered to be his strength. However, the serve-plus-forehand combination can do wonders for the underdog going into his fourth round match against the Swiss.

Federer, thus far, has enjoyed an easier outing in the first three rounds of the tournament, having sealed victories without dropping a single set. He’s playing each and every one of his shots perfectly which means he has almost ensured a safe passage for himself till the semifinals unless, of course, a bad day hits him. That bad day can well be brought about by Raonic if he gets the sets decided through tie-breakers. Playing against a guy like Milos, it is impossible not to think of sets without tie-breaks and the Swiss Maestro has ample experience in that department.

What would worry the Swiss Master most is he was able to convert only three of the thirteen break points he had in his yesterday’s match against Tomic. Though not renowned for his serves by any means, the Aussie was able to save those break points almost at will. Incidentally, Milos is known for smashing aces and un- returnable serves at the time when they are needed the most. But again, the youngster is a mere mortal and so would be having a couple of bad service games for sure. So whenever his serve misses the mark, Roger should capitalize on it and should try engaging his 6 ft 5 in opponent into playing baseline rallies. If he succeeds in doing that, Raonic is bound to make unforced errors off his backhand due to his bad foot work. I have a gut feeling that Roger may be employing his slice backhand during rallies judiciously tomorrow, which could draw the 13th seed to make more errors. And the Swiss himself would not be required to play extravagant shots and he can also exercise self-restraint against the Canadian, who is a slow mover on the court, which means the former would make only a few errors, comparatively.

As far as Milos is concerned, he can only stay positive and ensure that his first serve percentage stays above 75 throughout the match. On a good day, Roger’s serve can look as good as Raonic’s and if he starts firing on all cylinders, the match will get over in less than two hours. One cannot be oblivious to the fact that he amassed as much as 50 aces, the most by anyone in a Wimbledon final. The Canadian’s best chance of pulling off an upset is to hold on to all of his service games as I don’t foresee him breaking Swiss Maestro’s serve at all.

Prediction: Federer wins in three sets if one of the sets goes to a tie-breaker or may be in four sets if we get to see a two tie-breaker set.