Monte-Carlo Masters 2023: Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (6) Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini

Tournament: Monte-Carlo 2023

Date: Thursday, April 13

Round: Third Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Monte Carlo Country Club, France

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €5,779,335

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, TC Plus/UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini preview

Rune is looking to reach the quarterfinals.

Sixth seed Holger Rune takes on Italian Matteo Berrettini on Thursday as a place in the Monte-Carlo quarterfinal beckons.

World No. 9 Rune improved to 15-7 on the season by beating former quarterfinalist Dominic Thiem in his opener. The Danish teenager is coming off an underwhelming 3-2 run in the Sunshine Double, reaching the third round in Indian Wells and the fourth in Miami.

After reaching the Australian Open fourth round, Rune made the semifinals at Montpellier and Acapulco. The 19-year-old is now 2-2 in the Principality, crossing the second-round hurdle at the third time of asking. Last year, he emerged from qualifying to lose in the second round, having lost in the first round in 2021. Both defeats came against Casper Ruud.

Meanwhile, 22nd-ranked Berrettini is 7-6 on the season after a battling three-set win over Francisco Cerundolo from a set down. The Italian had beaten Maxime Cressy in the first round.

In what has been a stop-start season for the comeback man, Berrettini made the Phoenix Challenger quarterfinals either side of first-round exits in Indian Wells and Miami. He reached the Acapulco quarterfinals and is now a win away from his first Monte-Carlo last-eight match, improving to 2-2 in the Principality.

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Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini head-to-head

Rune and Berrettini have split their two previous meetings, with the Norwegian winning the pair's last clash in the Acapulco quarterfinals this year. Berrettini won their first meeting in the Indian Wells second round last year. They're yet to meet on clay.

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Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Holger Rune	-250	-1.5 (+105)	Over 22.5 (-110)
Matteo Berrettini	+180	+1.5 (-145)	Under 22.5 (-125)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini prediction

Berrettini is into the third round for the first time.

Both Rune and Berrettini look to win points from the baseline and tend to play their best tennis on faster surfaces. They have similar game styles, serving and hitting big and also moving well.

However, Berrettini is the more accomplished player on clay, winning 47 of his 67 matches. That includes reaching the Roland Garros and Rome quarterfinals and the Madrid final. Rune, meanwhile, has 19 wins (and 18 losses) on the surface, reaching the 2022 Roland Garros last eight.

Rune will fancy his chances, as he's the fresher of the two players - playing two sets - while Berrettini has played five across two matches. Expect the Dane to win this one.

Prediction: Rune in straight sets