Monte-Carlo Masters 2023: Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Fixture: (7) Jannik Sinner vs (6) Holger Rune

Tournament: Monte-Carlo 2023

Date: Saturday, April 15

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Monte Carlo Country Club, France

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Outdoor clay

Prize money: €5,779,335

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel, TC Plus | UK - Amazon Prime Video

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Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune preview

Sinner is looking to reach his first Monte-Carlo final.

Seventh seed Jannik Sinner takes on sixth seed Holger Rune on Saturday for a place in the Monte-Carlo final.

The eighth-ranked Sinner won the battle of the 21-year-old Italians on Friday, beating his compatriot Lorenzo Musetti and losing just four games. He's now 24-5 on the season and 7-2 in the Principality.

Sinner has had an impressive season. After making the last eight at Adelaide-1, the Italian reached the Australian Open fourth round before winning his first title of the year in Montpellier. After losing in the Rotterdam final (to Daniil Medvedev), Sinner reached the last four at Indian Wells and the final in Miami (lost to Medvedev again).

Meanwhile, World No. 9 Rune has had a slightly less impressive season than Sinner. Nevertheless, he beat the in-form Medvedev in straight sets to improve to 17-7 in 2023 and 4-2 in Monte-Carlo.

Rune has had a lukewarm campaign since winning the Paris Masters last year, having not reached a final yet. After marking the Australian Open's fourth round, the Danish teenager reached the last four in Montpellier and Acapulco. He arrived at the Principality off a Round of 16 run at Miami.

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Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune head-to-head

Rune took the pair's lone meeting in the Sofia semifinals last year. This will be their first clash on clay.

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Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (over/under)
Jannik Sinner	-185	-1.5 (+125)	Over 21.5 (-135)
Holger Rune	+145	+1.5 (-175)	Under 21.5 (-105)

(All odds as per BETMGM)

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Jannik Sinner vs Holger Rune prediction

Rune is looking to reach his first final of the season.

Both Sinner and Rune are quintessential baseliners and have similar game styles - serve and hit big and move well. However, the Italian takes the edge because of his superior claycourt pedigree and experience.

Sinner is 38-17 on the surface, while Rune is 20-18. The Italian put on a returning masterclass against Musetti, winning all the second-serve points and putting 92% of first-serve returns in. Rune, meanwhile, was impressive against Medvedev, converting three of five break points and winning 81% of his net points.

Rune may have taken his lone meeting with Sinner, but the Italian has been the epitome of consistency this season - reaching his third straight Masters 1000 semifinal. Sinner should have enough in the tank to beat the fresher Rune, who had a walkover against Matteo Berrettini in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Sinner in three sets