Monte-Carlo Masters 2025: Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Rohit
Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov is one of the quarterfinal matches at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photos: Getty)
Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov is one of the quarterfinal matches at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photos: Getty)

Match Details

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Fixture: (8) Alex de Minaur vs (15) Grigor Dimitrov

Date: April 11, 2025

Tournament: Monte-Carlo Masters 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Monte Carlo Country Club

Category: Masters 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €6,128,940

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN


Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov preview

Alex de Minaur at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Alex de Minaur at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Eighth seed Alex de Minaur will take on Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025.

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After a first-round bye, de Minaur was up against Tomas Machac. He rallied from a set down to beat him 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, which set up a third-round showdown against former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev. The match started with three consecutive service breaks, with the Aussie gaining the upper hand to go 2-1 up.

De Minaur snagged another break of serve and extended his lead to 5-1. He wrapped up the set soon after that. He raced to a 4-1 lead in the second set thanks to a double break. Medvedev was able to retrieve one of the breaks to make it 4-2, only to get broken in the very next game. The Australian served out the match in the next game for a 6-2, 6-2 win.

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Dimitrov beat Nicolas Jarry 6-3, 6-4 in his opener here and staged a comeback to beat Valentin Vacherot 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 in the second round. He was up against Alejandro Tabilo in the third round, who ousted Novak Djokovic in the previous round.

While Dimitrov initially blew his lead in the first set, he secured another break of serve to put himself in the driver's seat and claimed the set. Tabilo jumped to a 5-0 lead in the second set only to encounter some resistance from his opponent, who bagged the next three games.

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However, Tabilo was able to serve out the set on his second try to level the match. Dimitrov raised his level in the decider and held at least one break point on each of Tabilo's service games in the third set. He eventually broke twice to win the match 6-3, 3-6, 6-2.


Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov head-to-head

De Minaur leads Dimitrov 3-2 in the head-to-head. The Aussie won their most recent meeting in Rotterdam a year ago in straight sets.

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Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov odds

PlayerMoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Alex de Minaur
-190+1.5 (-500)Over 22.5 (-105)
Grigor Dimitrov+155-1.5 (+290)Under 22.5 (-140)
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(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)


Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov prediction

Grigor Dimitrov at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photo: Getty)
Grigor Dimitrov at the Monte-Carlo Masters 2025. (Photo: Getty)

Despite the routine scoreline, de Minaur was given a tough fight by Medvedev in the previous round. While he lost his serve thrice during the contest, he also broke his opponent's serve on seven occasions. He struck 15 winners compared to 21 unforced errors.

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Dimitrov was pushed to three sets for the second consecutive round in Monte Carlo but dug deep to emerge triumphant. He hit 26 winners against 16 unforced errors. His win over Tabilo was also his 26th at the venue, making this his most successful Masters 1000 tournament in terms of match wins. He has also made the last eight here for the fifth time.

While Dimitrov is seeking to advance to the semifinals here for the third time, de Minaur is vying to do the same for the first time. The latter has never made the last four at a big clay court tournament. While the Aussie has the upper hand in this rivalry, the Bulgarian has a better resume on clay, which could ultimately sway the tide in his favor.

Pick: Grigor Dimitrov to win in three sets.

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Edited by Rohit
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