Monte-Carlo Masters 2025: Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds, and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti (13)

Date: April 10, 2025

Tournament: Monte-Carlo Masters 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Monte Carlo Country Club

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €6,128,940

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel / TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

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Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Three - Source: Getty

World No. 34 Matteo Berrettini will meet World No. 17 Lorenzo Musetti in the third round of the Monte Carlo Masters. Berrettini performed well at last week's Miami Open, losing 5-7, 7-6 (7), 5-7 to World No. 4 Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinal, having given the American a fright. The Italian also had runs to the quarterfinals in Dubai and Qatar, and is in good form.

Lorenzo Musetti's season has been stunted by injury, which is why he has withdrawn from several tournaments. He reached the quarterfinals of the Hong Kong Open, and then overcame Matteo Arnaldi and 27th seed Denis Shapalov to reach the third round of the Australian Open. He was beaten by Ben Shelton in an epic five-setter, 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-7(5). He was then forced out of the Argentina Open by an injury.

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Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

Matteo Berrettini and Lorenzo Musetti have met twice on the ATP tour, sharing one win each. They've never met on clay. Musetti won their final match in Naples in 2022, 7-6(5), 6-2 on the hard court, while Berrettini was victorious in their Stuttgart semifinal last year on grass, winning comfortably 6-4, 6-0.

Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

Players	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Matteo Berrettini	-150	-4.5 (+300)	Over 12.5 (-129)
Lorenzo Musetti	+120	+4.5 (-455)	Under 12.5 (+100)

(All odds are sourced from BetMGM)

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Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Four - Source: Getty

28-year-old Berrettini has 10 Tour title wins and has ranked as high as No. 6. A 2021 Wimbledon final appearance demonstrates that h is a class performer on his good days. He had a straightforward 6-4, 6-4 first-round win over qualifier Mariano Navone, and then defeated World No. 2 and top seed Alexander Zverev in the last round, 2-6, 6-3, 7-5. Berrettini has now won 17 of his last 18 matches on clay.

Fellow Italian Musetti has required three sets to get by his first two opponents - he beat Yunchaokete Bu 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, before turning back the challenge of Jiri Lehecka in the last round 1-6, 7-5, 6-2. 23-year-old Musetti is the Italian No. 2 to Berrettini's No. 3, and is the thirteenth seed in Monte Carlo.

Despite the ranking disparity, Berrettini's clay court record and recent form, including the career-best win over Zverev, should see him dispatch his compatriot and ease through to the next round. Musetti has shown plenty of fight in his previous matches in Monte Carlo, coming back from a set down, so he will force Berrettini to three sets.

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Pick:

Matteo Berrettini in three sets