Monte-Carlo Masters 2025 Semifinal: Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, odds, prediction and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (8) Alex de Minaur vs (13) Lorenzo Musetti

Date: April 12, 2025

Tournament: Monte-Carlo Masters 2025

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Monte Carlo Country Club

Category: ATP 1000

Surface: Clay

Prize Money: €6,128,940

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel/TC Plus | UK - Sky Sports | Canada - TSN

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Alex de Minaur of Australia plays a forehand against Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria in the Men's Singles Quarterfinal match during day six of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Source: Getty

World number 10 Alex de Minaur will face Italy's Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinal of the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters on Saturday, April 12. The winner of this match will play the winner between Carlos Alcaraz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final.

The eighth seed, Alex de Minaur, reached the semifinal in Monte-Carlo for the first time with a 6-0, 6-0 win against Grigor Dimitrov. He also defeated the former World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, 6-2, 6-2 in the third round.

The 26-year-old Australian has won 20 matches this season and looks in imperious form. He reached the final of the ABN Amro Open in Rotterdam in February, his best performance this season. Notably, no one else has registered more wins than him on the ATP Tour in 2025 so far.

World No. 16 Musetti reached the semifinal by knocking out the three-time Monte-Carlo champion Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. He won the first round 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 against Bu Yunchaokete and the second round 1-6, 7-5, 6-2 against Jiri Lehecka.

The 23-year-old Italian has reached his first semifinal this season. He has an 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, as he missed the tournaments in February due to a right calf injury.

Lorenzo Musetti of Italy celebrates winning a point against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece in the Men's Singles Quarter Final match during day six of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. Source: Getty

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti are tied 1-1 in the head-to-head record. The Australian won when they met in the first round of the 2022 Australian Open on hard court, whereas Musetti won in three sets when they played each other at the Queen's Club on grass court in 2024.

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total Games
Alex de Minaur	TBD	TBD	TBD
Lorenzo Musetti	TBD	TBD	TBD

(Odds will be added when available)

Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

Alex de Minaur has never reached the final of any prestigious ATP event on clay court. This is his first semifinal appearance in a Masters 1000 event on clay court. The last Australian to reach the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters was John Newcombe in 1969.

He can also reach his career high ranking by winning this title, as he will leapfrog Novak Djokovic to become World No. 5. The Australian will be the favorite to win this match against Musetti, considering his recent form and performances in Monte-Carlo.

Meanwhile, Lorenzo Musetti has never reached the final of any Masters 1000 before, and it will be his first appearance in the semifinal of a Masters 1000 event. The Olympic bronze medallist will reach his career high ranking, No. 13, even if he loses this semifinal match.

Musetti can break into the top 10 for the first time by winning this title. His career's first ATP title was the 2022 Hamburg Open, when he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final, and he may have to do that again here to lift the trophy.

Prediction: Alex de Minaur to win in three sets