Adelaide International 2025: Madison Keys vs Daria Kasatkina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (3) Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys

Date: January 8, 2025

Tournament: Adelaide International 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: Memorial Drive Tennis Centre, Adelaide, Australia

Category: WTA 500

Surface: Outdoor Hardcourt

Prize money: $1,064,510

Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Tennis TV

---

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys preview

Madison Keys tracks down a ball at Adelaide (Image via Getty)

Third seed Daria Kasatkina will take on the dangerous Madison Keys for a place in the semifinals of the 2025 Adelaide International.

Kasatkina suffered from a rough start to her campaign this year, being upset by Polina Kudermetova in the second round of the Brisbane International. The Russian has fared better in Adelaide this week, beating Olivia Gadecki and Emerson Jones to reach the quarterfinals at the WTA 500 tournament.

The World No. 9 will be eager to go deeper in the draw if her past exploits at the event are anything to go by. She finished runner-up in Adelaide to Belinda Bencic and Jelena Ostapenko in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

Keys has done relatively better during her 2025 WTA Tour season thus far. The World No. 20 made it to the last eight at the ASB Classic last week as the top seed, where she lost to fifth-seeded Clara Tauson in two sets.

The American replicated the above form at this week's Adelaide International, beating top-quality opponents like Jelena Ostapenko and Beatriz Haddad Maia to secure her quarterfinal spot at the 500-level event.

Although she is unseeded at the tournament, the 29-year-old can take respite in her 2022 Adelaide title victory and motivate herself to record her first semifinal result since the Rothesay International last June.

---

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys head-to-head

Keys beat Kasatkina to win the 2023 Rothesay International title (Image via Getty)

Keys leads Kasatkina by a whopping margin of 9-2 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. The American has gotten the better of her higher-ranked opponent in eight of their nine meetings on hardcourt, with the Russian's lone hardcourt win over her having come at the 2022 Melbourne Summer Set.

---

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Madison Keys	-210	-1.5 (+110)	Over 20.5 (-140)
Daria Kasatkina	+160	+1.5 (-160)	Under 20.5 (-105)

All bets sourced from BetMGM.

---

Daria Kasatkina vs Madison Keys prediction

Daria Kasatkina hits a backhand at Adelaide (Image via Getty)

Kasatkina is renowned for her high-IQ versatile play. Although she has underpowered groundstrokes from both wings, the 27-year-old can upset her opponent's rhythm with slices and finesse play. She also has a consistent service game and doesn't give away points for free easily.

Keys, on the other hand, is one of the most aggressive players on the WTA Tour. The former World No. 7 has flat groundstrokes and likes charging the net after firing off her guided missile trajectories. That said, her aggressive intent also exposes her to uncharacteristic errors, especially on crucial points.

The key for both players in this cross-edged match-up will be to follow their respective game plans while maintaining a high first-serve percentage. While Keys has the advantage over Kasatkina based on their past head-to-head record, she is far from the player she used to be in her best years. Thus, the Russian is in with more than a fair chance to win their 12th tour-level encounter.

Pick: Kasatkina in three sets.