Aryna Sabalenka vs Iga Swiatek: How Australian Open SF results have impacted World No. 1 battle

One of the storylines heading into this year's Australian Open was the battle for number one. The major storyline for any Grand Slam event is obviously who will win it. That’s the most consequential part of an event like that, but the other one is the rankings.

No event carries as many points as a Grand Slam event because the winner earns 2000 points, which is far more than you can win at most of the other events. The other part is defending those points, which is tough for a champion because even if they win the trophy, they won't earn anything, they'll just stay put. If they fail to win that, depending on the round they crash out in, they will lose points.

That made the 2025 Australian Open rather pivotal for the battle for number one. Heading into the event, Aryna Sabalenka was ahead of Iga Swiatek. She had 9656 points compared to Swiatek's 8120. There was an outcome where Swiatek could overtake Sabalenka as the world number one, as unlikely as it was.

Regardless of what she did, Sabalenka could only lose points. Swiatek could win many because last year she lost in the 3rd round. That means she defended only 130 points. If she had won the event, she would get almost 1800 points, which is more than the difference between her and Sabalenka, but she needed Sabalenka to lose early as well.

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How the 2025 Australian Open semi-finals settled it

This year's 2025 Australian Open semi-finalists settled the battle for number one, for now at least. By making the semi-finals, Sabalenka ensured that she would salvage 720 of the 2000 points she won. By making the semi-final, Swiatek won 650 points.

That meant that Sabalenka was at 8376 points while Swiatek had 8770. If Sabalenka had lost her semi-final, Swiatek would have become the new world number one after the event regardless if she had beaten Madison Keys or not. Sabalenka ended up beating Paula Badosa 6-4, 6-2 to advance to the final, earning 520 more points.

That meant that she was ahead of Swiatek now and the Polish player needed to win her match to remain in the fight. She didn't beat Keys, however, as the American saved a match point in a very dramatic match to essentially leave Swiatek at 8770 points. Sabalenka already has 8956 after making the final, ensuring that she's number one regardless of whether she wins the final or not. That was pointed out by noted tennis insider Jose Morgado after the second semi-final.