Australian Open 2025 draw: Aryna Sabalenka's projected path to final ft. potential SF with Coco Gauff

2024 Australian Open - Day 14 - Source: Getty
Aryna Sabalenka with the 2024 Australian Open trophy - Source: Getty

Aryna Sabalenka is set to try to defend her Australian Open title for the second consecutive time as she aims for a rare three-peat in Melbourne. The Belarusian faces a challenging draw, with several formidable opponents standing in her way.

As the second seed last year, Sabalenka dominated the competition, capturing the title without dropping a set and delivering three bagels along the way. Heading into the 2025 edition, similar challenges await the 26-year-old, who is the top seed, as she seeks to cement her place in tennis history.

On that note, let’s take a closer look at Sabalenka’s Australian Open draw and her potential path to the final.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open first-round opponent - Sloane Stephens

Aryna Sabalenka, the top seed, will begin her Australian Open campaign against former US Open champion Sloane Stephens. This matchup is one of only two first-round clashes in the WTA draw featuring Grand Slam champions on both sides.

Sabalenka holds a dominant 4-0 head-to-head record against Stephens, and the American’s recent struggles only add to the Belarusian's advantage. Stephens has been in a slump, failing to secure a win since the first round of Wimbledon and currently enduring an eight-match losing streak. Sabalenka is heavily favored to extend Stephens’ woes with a third consecutive defeat this season.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected second-round opponent - Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

In the second round, Sabalenka could face a challenging test against World No. 52 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. This will mark their first meeting on the WTA Tour, and the Spaniard has already proven capable of toppling defending champions.

Last year, Bouzas Maneiro stunned defending Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, showcasing her ability to rise to the occasion. Sabalenka will need to stay vigilant against the determined rising star to secure her place in the next round.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected third-round opponent - Linda Noskova / Clara Tauson

Sabalenka could run into higher ranked opponents early in the draw evident in the likely battles against World No. 30 Linda Noskova or World No. 41 Clara Tauson in the third round.

The Belarusian leads the head-to-head against Noskova 1-0 while she has not played against Tauson on tour. The Danish player, fresh from her title at the ASB Classic, could pose significant trouble for Sabalenka.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected fourth-round opponent - Mirra Andreeva / Magdalena Frech

In the fourth round, Sabalenka could face familiar opponents, with Mirra Andreeva and Magdalena Frech both potentially on track to challenge her.

The Belarusian recently defeated Frech in straight sets at the Wuhan Open and secured a similar result against Andreeva in the Brisbane semifinals just days ago. Notably, Sabalenka went on to win both tournaments.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected QF opponent - Zheng Qinwen

Zheng Qinwen and Aryna Sabalenka at the 2024 Australian Open - Source: Getty
Zheng Qinwen and Aryna Sabalenka at the 2024 Australian Open - Source: Getty

Sabalenka is projected to face her 2024 Australian Open finals opponent, Zheng Qinwen, in the quarterfinals this year. Their rivalry has been heavily one-sided, with Sabalenka leading 5-0 and Zheng managing to win just one set against the Belarusian.

If they meet again, World No. 5 Zheng will be eager to secure her first victory against Sabalenka. However, the Chinese star cannot be underestimated, as she clinched the Paris Olympics gold medal last year and reached multiple high-profile finals.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected SF opponent - Coco Gauff / Jessica Pegula

Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka at the US Open 2023 - Source: Getty
Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka at the US Open 2023 - Source: Getty

In the Melbourne semifinals, Sabalenka could face one of her past US Open final opponents. In 2023, Coco Gauff triumphed over Sabalenka to claim the title, but a year later, the Belarusian turned the tables, defeating Jessica Pegula to lift the trophy.

Gauff poses a significant challenge, holding a slight edge in their rivalry with a 5-4 head-to-head lead. She also defeated Sabalenka at the WTA Finals just a few months ago, showcasing her ability to trouble the reigning Australian Open champion.


Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open projected final opponent - Iga Swiatek / Elena Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek at the Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2024 - Source: Getty
Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek at the Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2024 - Source: Getty

If everything goes according to plan, Sabalenka could face a formidable opponent in the final of the 2024 Australian Open. The defending champion might square off against either five-time Grand Slam winner Iga Swiatek or 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, setting the stage for an electrifying clash.

World No. 2 Swiatek, who is yet to claim an Australian Open title, holds a commanding 8-4 lead in her head-to-head record against Sabalenka. On the other hand, Rybakina, known for her powerful game, is aiming to rediscover her peak form and consistency.

For Sabalenka, retaining her crown will demand her very best against either rival.

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Edited by Neelabhra Roy
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