Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic: Scenarios for World No. 1 at Australian Open

Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will resume their battle for No. 1 at the Australian Open, which starts on Sunday (January 14).

Djokovic, the defending champion and World No. 1, has 11,055 points heading into the Melbourne Slam. Meanwhile, World No. 2 Alcaraz has 8,855 points but the Spaniard is defending no points this fortnight.

Having won the title - a record-extending tenth last year - Djokovic is defending a whopping 2,000 ranking points at the tournament. Contrast that to Alcaraz, who has everything to gain this fortnight, having withdrawn from last year's tournament due to a freak injury in training.

Despite the over 2000-point difference in ranking points between Djokovic and Alcaraz, things could change, especially if the former loses early and Alcaraz has a deep run. Let's explore the various scenarios for both players:

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How Novak Djokovic stays No. 1 after the Australian Open

#1 If Alcaraz loses before the quarterfinals, Djokovic stays No. 1 regardless of how he fares in the tournament.

#2 If Alcaraz loses in the quarterfinals, Djokovic needs to reach the fourth round.

#3 If Alcaraz loses in the semis, Djokovic needs to match that result.

#4 If Alcaraz reaches the final, the Serb will stay No. 1 by taking the title.

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How Carlos Alcaraz leaves the Australian Open as the World No. 1

#1 If he wins the title, Carlos Alcaraz need not worry about anything else. He will gain 2,000 points, while Djokovic, at best, would lose 800 points (by losing in the final), which will be enough of a points swing for the Spaniard to take over.

#2 If Djokovic reaches the final, Alcaraz needs to take the title.

#3 If Djokovic loses in the semis, Alcaraz needs to reach the final.

#4 If Djokovic loses in the quarterfinals or fourth round, Alcaraz needs to reach the semis.

#5 If Djokovic loses in the third round or earlier, Alcaraz needs to reach the quarterfinals.

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How have Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz fared at the Australian Open

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is the most successful male player in Australian Open history. In 18 visits to the tournament, he has walked away with the title on 10 occasions, racking up a stunning 89-8 record.

The Serb is unbeaten in 20 matches at the Australian Open beyond the quarterfinals. He's also the only male player in the Open Era to do a three-peat (2011-13).

Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz has never been beyond the third round at the Australian Open. In two previous appearances, he has gone 3-2 at Melbourne Park. However, the Spaniard has won the other hardcourt Grand Slam (2022 US Open), an experience that could come in handy on a similar surface.

Of course, there's the added incentive of reclaiming the No. 1 title from Djokovic by taking the title this time around, his first in Melbourne.