Consequences of Novak Djokovic's ATP Finals withdrawal: What does the Turin decision mean for Serb's immediate future & Australian Open 2025 seeding?

Defending champion Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. Had he decided to play, the Serb would have made his seventeenth appearance this year.

The 37-year-old wrote on his Instagram stories on Tuesday (November 5) that an "ongoing injury" prevented him from making the trip to Turin. He also wished his elite peers luck while apologizing to the Italian fans for his absence.

"It's quite an honor to qualify for the @nittoatpfinals in Turin. I was really looking forward to being there, but due to ongoing injury I won't be playing next week. Apologies to those who were planning to see me. Wishing all the players a great tournament. See you soon!" Novak Djokovic wrote.

Due to his withdrawal from the 2024 ATP Finals, Djokovic will drop 1,300 ranking points next Monday (November 11). The World No. 5 has a tally of 5,210 points, which means he will stand at 3,910 points next week and fall to No. 6 since Taylor Fritz currently has 4,300 points.

Moreover, Novak Djokovic can be leapfrogged in the ATP rankings by either Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur, or Andrey Rublev — who stand at 3,855, 3,745, and 3,720 points, respectively — provided they win at least one match in the round-robin stage. This means the 24-time Major winner will exit the men's singles top eight rankings in the worst possible scenario.

Djokovic's fall to the World No. 9 position might have little to no ramifications on his 2025 Australian Open campaign, at least in terms of avoiding either Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz — two players who have had his number at the big tournaments lately — in the early rounds.

The earliest the Serb would have met either of the two at the Happy Slam would've been in the quarterfinals, even if he didn't exit the top eight. Considering players seeded between 9th and 12th are not projected to face players ranked in the top four at the Majors in the Round of 16, he can breathe a sigh of relief for now.

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Novak Djokovic is to be seeded outside the top four at the Australian Open for the first time since 2018

Novak Djokovic to be seeded below fourth in Melbourne for 1st time since 2018 | Getty Images

Novak Djokovic is the winningest player in Australian Open history having clinched ten titles in Melbourne. The 24-time Major winner also has an unassailable match-win record of 94-9 at the tournament, which translates to a 91% win rate, making him a favorite at next year's event.

The 37-year-old, however, will be seeded outside the top four for the first time since 2018 — a year that saw him come back from an elbow injury. He exited the tournament in the fourth round to Hyeon Chung in straight sets.

Outside the 2018 edition of the Australian Open, Djokovic has never been seeded below fourth since becoming a top player. He has been seeded first eight times (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2024), second thrice (2014, 2017, 2020), third four times (2008-11), and fourth once in 2023