How Novak Djokovic's absence could result in the crowning of a new World No. 1 in Australia

With Novak Djokovic's decision to skip the upcoming ATP Cup and his participation in the Australian Open doubtful, there's a chance that by the conclusion of the season's first Grand Slam, there might be a new player at the top of the rankings.

Roger Federer ascended to the top of the rankings in February 2004. Since then, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are the only other players to have been ranked No. 1. The foursome's stranglehold at the top of the rankings was due to their extraordinary achievements on court which kept a generation of players at bay.

However, with the Serbian's participation in Australia seeming increasingly unlikely, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will get the opportunity to make a play for the top spot. The duo are ranked two and three respectively. If either of them wins the Australian Open in Djokovic's absence, they could dethrone him as the World No. 1.

Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev will be looking to make the most of Novak Djokovic's absence

Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev at the 2021 ATP Finals

Novak Djokovic currently has 11,540 points while Medvedev and Zverev have 8,640 and 7,840 points respectively. The trio are defending 2665, 1700 and 785 points respectively from the previous editions of the ATP Cup and the Australian Open.

Since ATP adopted a different method for ranking points due to the pandemic, the aforementioned points also reflect the ranking points accrued in 2020. If a player didn't perform well in 2021, they were allowed to keep their 2020 points. However, ranking points gained in 2020 are set to drop next year. The breakdown is as follows:

	Current ranking points	Points defending from the ATP Cup	Points defending from the Australian Open
Novak Djokovic	11,540	655 (2020)	2,000 (2021)
Daniil Medvedev	8,640	500 (2021)	1,200 (2021)
Alexander Zverev	7,840	65 (2021)	720 (2020)

Djokovic will not compete at the ATP Cup and if he decides to skip the Australian Open as well, he'll be left with 8875 points, leaving his World No. 1 ranking in jeopardy. So the possible scenarios in which Medvedev and Zverev could claim the top spot are as follows:

What Daniil Medvedev needs to do to become the World No. 1

It is only possible for Medvedev to gain enough points to become World No. 1 if he wins the Australian Open, as he was a finalist at the Slam and went undefeated during the ATP Cup earlier this year.

So if the Russian remains unbeaten once again during the ATP Cup next year and wins in Melbourne too, he'll add 800 points to his current total of 8,640 points. Then he'll have 9,440 points compared to Djokovic's 8,875 points to claim the top spot from him. If Medvedev wins the Australian Open, then Zverev's results during this period won't have any effect on the Russian's ascent to the top.

What Alexander Zverev needs to do to become the World No. 1

Zverev, on the other hand, is defending the least amount of points and a good showing at both the tournaments could propel him to the top of the rankings. Even if he doesn't perform well at the ATP Cup, winning the Australian Open should be enough.

Deducting points from both events leaves Zverev with 7,055 points. So if the German wins the Australian Open, he'll claim the No. 1 ranking with 9,055 points, while Djokovic will have 8,875 points.

In this scenario, even if Medvedev reaches the final after performing well at the ATP Cup, it won't help him, as he'll be left with the same amount of points he currently has.

All of this hinges on Djokovic's absence from the Australian Open or an early exit if he competes, along with Medvedev and Zverev performing well. Nevertheless, an exciting new chapter is about to unfold in tennis.