Indian Wells 2025: Men's Singles First Qualifying Round predictions ft. Mitchell Krueger vs Matteo Gigante, Fabio Fognini vs Colton Smith

The ATP Masters 1000 season is about to open with the first qualifying rounds of the 2025 BNP Paribas Open set to take place on March 3. The field has 48 men who will be competing for 12 available spots in the main draw.

The qualifying draw has ten American players, of whom two are seeded—12th-seed Christopher Eubanks and 22nd-seed Mitchell Krueger. The top three seeds are Mattia Bellucci, Daniel Altmaier, and Botic Van de Zandschulp.

Seventh-seeded Fabio Fognini is the only player in the 48-man draw who is a former champion at the Masters 1000 level. The Italian won the title in Monte Carlo back in 2019.

Let's take a look at some of the best first-round qualifying matches set to take place at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open.

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#4 Daniel Altmaier vs Cristian Garin

In Picture: Daniel Altmaier (Getty)

Daniel Altmaier will begin his qualifying journey at the BNP Paribas Open by taking on Cristian Garin in the first round. Altmaier has shown some decent results in 2025, reaching consecutive quarterfinals in Rotterdam and Marseille. His last event was the Mexican Open, where he lost to eventual champion Tomas Machac in the second round.

Cristian Garin has a 3-3 record in 2025. The Chilean had his best run at the Australian Open, where he won four consecutive matches to reach the second round as a qualifier. He lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets. He last played at his home event at the Chile Open, losing to Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the second round.

These players have yet to play each other, but Altmaier will be the favorite to win because of his current form.

Predicted winner- Daniel Altmaier

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#2 Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Lukas Klein

In Picture: Botic Van de Zandschulp (Getty)

Botic Van de Zandschulp will take on Lukas Klein in the first round of qualifying at the BNP Paribas Open. The Dutch player has only one win out of six main draw matches in 2025. In his last event at the Dubai Tennis Championships, he failed to qualify for the main draw. His one win came at the Qatar Open, where he won his first-round match against Abdullah Shelbyah.

Lukas Klein has yet to win a match in the 2025 season. The former World No. 22 has struggled to qualify for main events as well. He qualified for the main draw at the Australian Open, losing to Sebastian Korda in four sets in the first round.

These two players have yet to meet on the Tour, but Van de Zandschulp has got the better of Klein in both of their Challenger Tour matches. That head-to-head will make the Dutch player the favorite for the upcoming match as well.

Predicted winner- Botic Van de Zandschulp

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#2 Mitchell Krueger vs Matteo Gigante

One of the two-seeded Americans in the qualifying draw, Mitchell Krueger will begin his campaign at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open by taking on Matteo Gigante. Krueger's best performance of 2025 came at the Australian Open, where he qualified for the main draw and won his first-round match against Rinki Hijikata. He lost to Corentin Moutet in the next round.

Matteo Gigante has played only four main-draw matches on the ATP Tour so far. In 2025, his only main draw match came at the Australian Open, where he lost against Ugo Humbert in the first round.

They have not met on the Tour as of yet, but Gigante won the only Challenger-level match he played against Krueger. However, given that this is his home event, Krueger will start as the favorite.

Predicted winner- Mitchell Krueger

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#1 Fabio Fognini vs Colton Smith

A former Top 10 player and a Masters 1000 champion, Fabio Fognini will take on local favorite Colton Smith in the qualifying round at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. This is going to be only the second match for Fognini in the 2025 season. The Italian had to retire in his qualifying match against Benjamin Bonzi at the Adelaide International.

Colton Smith has yet to make his main draw debut on the ATP Tour. However, the young American is in form, having won the Challenger event in Cleveland in January. He won against Elliot Spizzirri in the final.

This will be the first meeting between the two players. Fognini will be the favorite as he is the more seasoned player.

Predicted winner- Fabio Fognini