Indian Wells 2025: Women's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction ft. potential Coco Gauff-Emma Raducanu 2R, Iga Swiatek-Mirra Andreeva SF

The women's singles draw for the 2025 BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells (March 3-17) was unveiled on Tuesday, March 4. We are in for two weeks of high-octane tennis action.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka leads the field at the WTA 1000 tournament, while defending champion and World No. 2 Iga Swiatek looks to retain her title. Sabalenka will be eyeing her second trophy of the season, while Swiatek aims to take another step towards strengthening her bid for another Sunshine Double.

Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, and Jasmine Paolini round out the top five seeds. Each of these players poses a significant challenge and could stand in the way of Sabalenka and Swiatek's title hopes.

There are many exciting first-round matches lined up, including Sloane Stephens vs Sofia Kenin, Alycia Parks vs Anna Kalinskaya, Naomi Osaka vs Camila Osorio, Ashlyn Krueger vs Katie Volynets, and Caroline Garcia vs Bernarda Pera.

With that in mind, let's dive into how the women's singles draw of the 2025 Indian Wells might unfold over the next 14 days.

Top Half: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Madison Keys & Emma Raducanu make for interesting draw

Madison Keys pictured at the 2025 Indian Wells | Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (1) Aryna Sabalenka, (3) Coco Gauff, (5) Madison Keys, (6) Jasmine Paolini, (10) Emma Navarro, (12) Daria Kasatkina, (13) Diana Shnaider, (16) Beatriz Haddad Maia, (17) Amanda Anisimova, (19) Donna Vekic, (20) Ekaterina Alexandrova, (24) Liudmila Samsonova, (27) Leylah Fernandez, (28) Elise Mertens, (29) Maria Sakkari, (30) Magdalena Frech

Dark Horse: Belinda Bencic

Analysis: Top seed Aryna Sabalenka is in this half of the draw and will kick off her campaign in the second round, where she could face either Anna Blinkova or McCartney Kessler, having received a first-round bye. She started the season strong, capturing the Brisbane International title and finishing as the runner-up at the Australian Open. However, she struggled to maintain that momentum, facing early exits in tournaments like the Qatar Open and Dubai Tennis Championships.

In the next round, the World No. 1 could face either Magdalena Frech or Lucia Bronzetti, followed by a potential fourth-round clash against 16th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia or 20th seed Ekaterina Alexandrova. While Sabalenka fell short against Haddad Maia in their recent Doha encounter, she’ll have a chance to turn the tables this time and advance to the quarterfinals.

In the last eight, she could meet sixth seed Jasmine Paolini or 12th seed Daria Kasatkina. Given her superior form on her best days, the Belarusian stands a strong chance of overcoming either opponent.

The other half of this draw features several big names, including reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys, former US Open champion Coco Gauff, recently crowned Merida Open winner Emma Navarro, and Qatar Open champion Amanda Anisimova. Among them, Keys and Anisimova could be on a collision course for a quarterfinal showdown. This section also sets up an exciting potential clash between Gauff and Emma Raducanu in the second round.

Predicting the winner is challenging, but Keys might have a slight edge. She demonstrated her resilience and top-level form in Melbourne earlier this year, and if she can replicate even a fraction of that performance—along with her strong showing in Adelaide—she will be unstoppable.

She should be well-equipped to get past Navarro and set up a semifinal showdown with Sabalenka. This would be a rematch of their Australian Open final, and much like in Melbourne, the American could have the upper hand, making her the favorite to advance to the 2025 Indian Wells final.

Semifinal prediction: Madison Keys def. Aryna Sabalenka

Bottom Half: Mirra Andreeva, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula look to destroy Iga Swiatek's title defense

Iga Swiatek pictured at the 2025 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships | Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (2) Iga Swiatek, (4) Jessica Pegula, (7) Elena Rybakina, (8)Zheng Qinwen, (9) Mirra Andreeva, (11) Paula Badosa, (14) Danielle Collins, (15) Karolina Muchova, (18) Marta Kostyuk, (21) Yulia Putintseva, (22) Clara Tauson, (23) Elina Svitolina, (25) Katie Boulter, (26) Jelena Ostapenko, (31) Linda Noskova, (32) Ons Jabeur

Dark Horse: Naomi Osaka

Analysis: This section of the bottom half features seventh seed Elena Rybakina, fourth seed Jessica Pegula, 14th seed Danielle Collins, 26th seed Jelena Ostapenko, and several others. All seeded players have received a first-round bye and will begin their campaigns in the second round.

Rybakina will open her campaign against either Marie Bouzkova or Suzan Lamens in the second round, followed by a potential third-round encounter with 25th seed Katie Boulter. The real test could come in the fourth round, where she is likely to face ninth seed Mirra Andreeva. The teenager recently claimed her maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai, and if she carries that form into Indian Wells, she should be a strong contender for a quarterfinal spot.

Another strong contender for a quarterfinal spot is Pegula, who heads into Indian Wells with momentum from her title win at the ATX Open. A potential fourth-round clash with compatriot Collins could pose a challenge, but given her recent form, she should have the edge to advance further. However, she will most likely fall to Andreeva.

The other section of the draw is stacked with talent, featuring defending champion Iga Swiatek, eighth seed Zheng Qinwen, 11th seed Paula Badosa, and 15th seed Karolina Muchova. The presence of three-time Grand Slam finalist Ons Jabeur adds another layer of intrigue.

Swiatek’s potential quarterfinal opponent could be Marta Kostyuk, a formidable player when in form. However, the Pole is expected to prevail. If she advances to the semifinals, she could face Andreeva, who recently defeated her in the Dubai semifinals. Given the teenager’s rising confidence, she might replicate that result and secure a spot in the 2025 Indian Wells final.

Semifinal prediction: Mirra Andreeva def. Iga Swiatek

Indian Wells 2025: Final prediction

Mirra Andreeva def. Madison Keys