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The men's singles draw for the 2025 Madrid Open (April 23-May 4) was unveiled on Monday, April 21. We are in for more than a week of high-octane tennis action.
World No. 1 Alexander Zverev leads the field at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament, entering in red-hot form after his title win at the BMW Open in Munich. Meanwhile, World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is aiming for a strong comeback following his heartbreaking loss in the Barcelona Open final.
Taylor Fritz, Novak Djokovic, and Jack Draper round out the top five seeds. Each of these players poses a significant challenge and could stand in the way of Zverev and Alcaraz's title hopes.
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There are many exciting first-round matches lined up, including Learner Tien vs Marcos Giron, Alex Michelsen vs Alexander Bublik, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Mariano Navone, and Kei Nishikori vs Aleksandar Vukic.
With that in mind, let's dive into how the men's singles draw of the 2025 Madrid Open might unfold over the next 12 days.
Top half: Ben Shelton, Alexander Zverev, & Taylor Fritz look to destroy Andrey Rublev's title defense
Seeded Players: (1) Alexander Zverev, (3) Taylor Fritz, (7) Andrey Rublev, (8) Holger Rune, (9) Daniil Medvedev, (12) Ben Shelton, (13) Arthur Fils, (14) Casper Ruud, (18) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (20) Francisco Cerundolo, (22) Jakub Mensik, (23) Sebastian Korda, (25) Alexei Popyrin, (27) Hubert Hurkacz, (28) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, (31) Brandon Nakashima
Dark Horse: Alex Michelsen
Analysis: Top seed Alexander Zverev headlines this half of the draw and will begin his campaign in the second round against either Roberto Bautista Agut or Jaume Munar after receiving a first-round bye. While he started the season strong with a runner-up finish at the Australian Open, his form dipped in Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte Carlo. However, he bounced back impressively by winning the BMW Open in Munich and will arrive in Madrid with renewed confidence.
In the third round, Zverev could face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who is arguably playing some of the best tennis of his career. A potential fourth-round clash could then follow against either Arthur Fils or Francisco Cerundolo, both tricky opponents. While the path won't be easy, Zverev has the experience and current form to make it to the quarterfinals.
There, the German might run into Ben Shelton or Andrey Rublev. While Rublev has been inconsistent, Shelton, despite being dangerous, was convincingly beaten by Zverev in the Munich final, giving the World No. 1 the edge once again.
The other half of the draw is stacked with talent, including Taylor Fritz, Sebastian Korda, Casper Ruud, Daniil Medvedev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Holger Rune. A potential all-American fourth-round showdown between Fritz and Korda is on the cards, while Rune vs. Fritz seems like a likely quarterfinal clash. If recent form is anything to go by, Rune looks slightly more poised to edge through and potentially set up a blockbuster semifinal against Zverev.
Semifinal Prediction: Alexander Zverev def. Holger Rune
Bottom half: Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Frances Tiafoe, and Jack Draper make for an interesting draw
Seeded Players: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (4) Novak Djokovic, (5) Jack Draper, (6) Alex de Minaur, (10) Lorenzo Musetti, (11) Tommy Paul, (15) Grigor Dimitrov, (16) Frances Tiafoe, (17) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (19) Tomas Machac, (21) Ugo Humbert, (24) Karen Khachanov, (26) Jiri Lehecka, (29) Denis Shapovalov, (30) Matteo Berrettini, (32) Sebastian Baez
Dark Horse: Joao Fonseca
Analysis: This section of the bottom half of the 2025 Madrid Open draw features Novak Djokovic, Jack Draper, Frances Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Matteo Berrettini, and others. All seeded players have received a first-round bye and will begin their campaigns from the second round.
Djokovic will kick off against either Matteo Arnaldi or a qualifier, with a potential third-round clash against Sebastian Baez or Mattia Bellucci. A fourth-round test could come in the form of Tiafoe, but given the American's recent inconsistency, Djokovic should have the upper hand and is well-positioned to reach the quarterfinals.
Conversely, Draper stands out as a serious threat, especially after his breakthrough win at Indian Wells. To make the quarterfinals, the Brit might have to go through Tallon Griekspoor, Berrettini, and Paul—no easy path. But if he does make it that far, facing Djokovic could be a step too far, potentially paving the way for the former World No. 1 to book a semifinal spot.
The other section of this draw is stacked with talent as well, featuring Carlos Alcaraz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex de Minaur, Lorenzo Musetti, and others. Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Shapovalov, and Tomas Machac also add depth to this competitive bracket.
The most likely scenario is a quarterfinal showdown between Alcaraz and Musetti. Despite sustaining an injury in the Barcelona Open final, the Spaniard remains the favorite to advance. If he’s back to full fitness, Alcaraz should be able to overcome Musetti and set up a blockbuster semifinal clash against Novak Djokovic.
Semifinal Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz def. Novak Djokovic
Madrid Open 2025: Final prediction
Alexander Zverev def. Carlos Alcaraz
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