Daniil Medvedev to lose his No. 1 ranking; will be replaced by Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud after the US Open

After the US Open, Daniil Medvedev is set to be replaced by Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud as the World No. 1.

Daniil Medvedev’s rise to World No. 1:

Daniil Medvedev won his maiden Grand Slam title at the 2021 US Open. His stupendous triumph granted him a rise of 2,000 ranking points. His key results as the runner-up in the 2021 ATP World Tour Finals and the 2022 Australian Open aided him in clinching the top spot in the ATP rankings. The 26-year-old first earned the No. 1 position in February and held it for a couple of weeks in a race against Novak Djokovic. The Russian was reinstated in June and hadn’t budged since.

Daniil Medvedev’s fall:

Daniil Medvedev had a lot to lose at this year’s US Open – His World No. 1 Ranking and his status as the reigning champion in New York. Medvedev’s 2022 season was tainted by unspectacular results and time off court due to a hernia. The one-time Major winner was relying heavily on replicating his 2021 result at Flushing Meadows to keep his spot. His pursuit of the title, however, came to an end after he was dethroned by Australian Nick Kyrgios in the fourth round of the US Open. With his fall from the summit imminent, Daniil Medvedev will be replaced by Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud.

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With Daniil Medvedev out of contention, how will the US Open results of Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud affect their ranking?

There are various scenarios in which either of the three, Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz or Casper Ruud, can become World No. 1. However, Nadal is most likely to take the spot.

The Spanish veteran is currently leading the ATP live rankings with 5,810 points. With no points to defend from last season, Nadal will only earn more points moving forward. Thus, his position at the top will only be challenged if the two youngsters make deeper runs at the US Open.

Casper Ruud has booked a spot in the quarterfinals in New York, bettering his previous year’s result. Both Spaniards, meanwhile, are set to contest the fourth round on Monday and their outcome will be a deciding factor in the race to No. 1. If Nadal and Alcaraz were to lose in the fourth round, and Casper Ruud was to lose the quarterfinals, Rafael Nadal will become the World No. 1.

If Rafael Nadal loses his upcoming encounter or the quarterfinals and Carlos Alcaraz makes it to the final, he will secure the No. 1 position. Whereas, if Casper Ruud makes it to the final and Alcaraz doesn’t, the Norwegian will be the new World No. 1. If both Ruud and Alcaraz face off in the ultimate encounter, the winner will clinch the peak ranking.

However, if Nadal progresses to the semifinals, either of the two youngsters will have to lift the title to become the World No. 1. If they fail to do so, the position will be safe with the former World No. 1.

Casper Ruud is placed in the top half of the draw and will meet Matteo Berrettini in the quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, are in the bottom half and are on a semifinal collision course.