Tim Henman has outlined the challenges he expects Rafael Nadal to encounter upon his return to the tour after being sidelined for almost the entire 2023 season due to injury.
Nadal is currently facing a situation reminiscent of Roger Federer's position at the start of 2017. Federer was forced to cut his 2016 season short due to recurring knee issues, which were exacerbated by a serious injury during his five-set defeat to Milos Raonic at the Wimbledon Championships.
Despite his extended layoff from the tour and a subsequent drop in the rankings, Federer made a triumphant return at the Australian Open. The Swiss legend clinched his fifth title at the Mebourne Slam by defeating Nadal in the final.
Although Nadal finds himself in a similar scenario, Tim Henman recently stated that it was "unlikely" the 22-time Grand Slam champion would be able to replicate Federer's success at the 2024 Australian Open.
"Because they are such incredible champions, I think it is possible. I think it is unlikely. I think also add to the fact that Rafa's great on hard courts. He's just at a ridiculously different level on clay courts. So I think the hard courts is probably a little bit of a stepping stone," he told Eurosport.
In particular, Henman pointed out Nadal's lack of match practice and asserted that the Spaniard would have to readjust to competing in tournaments, enduring long matches, and dealing with adversity.
"He's got to get out there, he's got to get in the tournament environments, he's got to be competing in longer matches, dealing with adversity and all the different elements that he hasn't done for a long, long time. And that's not easy to come back into tournament play like that," he added.
"Rafael Nadal's comeback really starts once he gets on the clay courts" - Tim Henman
During the same interview, Tim Henman stated that Rafael Nadal's real comeback would begin during the clay season if he could remain injury-free during the hard-court swing.
"However, if he can stay injury free and play tournaments at the beginning of the year, to a certain extent, I feel like his comeback really starts once he gets on the clay courts and we will have had an opportunity to see where he's at, how is his fitness, how is his movement, how is his body, how does he recover after matches?" he said.
The Brit also contended that accurately gauging the Spaniard's potential to add to his Grand Slam tally would only be possible upon observing his performance on his return.
"I think then when we get to [see him] play, then we can say if there is a chance of Rafa adding to his Grand Slam tally. It'd be amazing if he won any tournament on the tour because it's not easy to do," he said.
"But again, Rafa's not there to come back and make quarters and semis in a couple of events. He wants to win the biggest titles. And so, I think the early part of next year will tell us a lot as to whether Rafa is going to be a contender," he added.
Rafael Nadal will make his return to the court at the ATP 250 Brisbane International, which is scheduled for December 31-January 7. Subsequently, he will begin his quest for his 23rd Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, which commences on January 14.
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