Shanghai Masters 2024: Men's singles draw analysis, preview & prediction ft. Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz final, Taylor Fritz-Alexander Zverev QF

The men's singles draw for the 2024 Shanghai Masters (October 4-13) was made public on Monday, September 30. We're in for over a week of high-octane tennis action.

Reigning US Open champion Jannik Sinner is the top seed at the ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai. He had a less-than-impressive outing here last year, crashing out in the fourth round to Ben Shelton, so he'll be eager to improve on that performance.

Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Daniil Medvedev round out the top five seeds. Djokovic will make his return to the ATP Tour in Shanghai after a short break following his third-round loss in New York this year.

There are many exciting first-round clashes taking place, such as Matteo Berrettini vs Christopher O'Connell, Stan Wawrinka vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Rinky Hijikata vs Miomir Kecmanovic, Reilly Opelka vs Arthur Rinderknech, and Marin Cilic vs Arthur Cazaux, among others.

With that in mind, let's dive into how the men's singles draw of the 2024 Shanghai Masters might unfold over the next few days.

Top Half: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton & Tommy Paul make for interesting draw

Carlos Alcaraz pictured at the 2024 China Open | Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (1) Jannik Sinner, (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (8) Casper Ruud, (10) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (11) Tommy Paul, (14) Ben Shelton, (16) Ugo Humbert, (18) Felix Auger-Aliassime, (19) Alejandro Tabilo, (21) Arthur Fils, (22) Sebastian Baez, (25) Nicolas Jarry, (29) Matteo Arnaldi, (30) Tomas Machac, (31) Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected Semifinal: Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz

Dark Horse: Marin Cilic

Analysis: Top seed Jannik Sinner is in this half of the draw and will begin his campaign in the second round against either Taro Daniel or a qualifier, having received a first-round bye.

Sinner is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career in 2024, despite a few ups and downs along the way. He has already claimed six titles this year, including two Grand Slam victories at the Australian and US Open.

In the third round, the World No. 1 could face Tomas Martin Etcheverry, with a potential fourth-round clash against Ben Shelton on the horizon.

The Italian is expected to overcome Shelton and advance to the quarterfinals, where a possible showdown with fifth seed Daniil Medvedev or 10th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas could await. Given his current form, he may have the upper hand and could reach the semifinals.

On the other side of this half of the draw is World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz, who, like Sinner, has enjoyed an exceptional 2024 season.

Alcaraz has claimed two Grand Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon, adding to his many other achievements. Although his form has dipped slightly since the Paris Olympics, the Spaniard remains one of the favorites to win the Shanghai Masters.

Alcaraz will begin his campaign in the second round, facing Shang Juncheng or Coleman Wong. In the third round, he could meet 25th seed Nicolás Jarry, followed by a potential fourth-round encounter against Marin Cilic or Ugo Humbert, both of whom he is likely to defeat. If he advances, the former World No. 1 could face either Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals.

While all the potential last-eight contenders are strong, it seems increasingly likely that the semifinal could come down to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Despite both having had remarkable seasons, the former holds a head-to-head advantage over Sinner, which could give the Spaniard the advantage to book a spot in the final.

Semifinal: Carlos Alcaraz def. Jannik Sinner

Bottom Half: Novak Djokovic vs Frances Tiafoe & Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz heighten the thrill

Taylor Fritz (L) and Alexander Zverev pictured at the 2024 Laver Cup | Image Source: Getty

Seeded Players: (2) Alexander Zverev, (4) Novak Djokovic, (6) Andrey Rublev, (7) Taylor Fritz, (9) Grigor Dimitrov, (12) Holger Rune, (13) Frances Tiafoe, (15) Lorenzo Musetti, (17) Jack Draper, (20) Alexei Popyrin, (23) Alexander Bublik, (24) Karen Khachanov, (26) Jordan Thompson, (27) Francisco Cerundolo, (28) Flavio Cobolli, (32) Brandon Nakashima

Expected Semifinal: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz

Dark Horse: Matteo Berrettini

Analysis: This half of the draw features 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic, who will kick off his campaign in the second round against either Alex Michelsen or Yunchaokete Bu, thanks to a first-round bye.

The Serb is the most successful player in the history of the Shanghai Masters and could potentially face Flavio Cobolli or his longtime rival Stan Wawrinka in the third round as he seeks a record fifth title in the Asian city.

Frances Tiafoe awaits Djokovic in the fourth round, assuming he secures victories against Yoshihito Nishioka and Alexander Bublik. The former World No. 1 is likely to beat the American and progress to the quarterfinals, where he might face Grigor Dimitrov or Andrey Rublev, both of whom he could potentially defeat to reach the semifinals.

The other side of this half of the draw features second seed Alexander Zverev, who is enjoying the best season of his career in 2024. Although the German withdrew from the China Open last week due to pneumonia, he is expected to be fully recovered just in time for his appearance in Shanghai.

Zverev has received a first-round bye and will begin his campaign against a qualifier, potentially facing Jordan Thompson or Tallon Griekspoor in the third round. The German may then go on to meet Lorenzo Musetti before advancing to the quarterfinals, where he could face his toughest challenge yet against Taylor Fritz.

Zverev and Fritz have faced each other four times this year, with the German winning only once at the Rome Masters, giving him a lower success rate against the American.

Therefore, it’s likely that Fritz will win this matchup as well and advance to the semifinals, where he will face Djokovic. The Serb is favored to prevail, potentially setting up a thrilling final against Carlos Alcaraz.

Semifinal Prediction: Novak Djokovic def. Taylor Fritz