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Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will enter the year's last Major as the top two seeds in New York City. Being the top seeds, the two players were placed in two separate halves of the draw that was released on August 22. This entails that the World No. 1 and World No. 2 can only meet in the final on September 7.
Swiatek will start her campaign in New York by facing off against Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round, with the Russian getting a chance to play as a lucky loser after Ons Jabeur's withdrawal. The World No. 1 might face Daria Saville in the second round, with her first real challenge of the event coming in the third round where she might possibly face 25th-seeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
A potential clash with Russian teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva is on the cards for the Polish player in the fourth round, but it is expected that Swiatek will be able to defeat her, as was the case in Cincinnati a few weeks ago where the top seed prevailed in three sets. Either Jessica Pegula or Danielle Collins will be the potential quarter-final opponent for the World No.1.
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Swiatek has dominant head-to-head records against both Collins and Pegula, leading 7-1, and 6-3 respectively. Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, and Jelena Ostapenko are the probable opponents for the top seed in the semis. Swiatek has a winning record against Paolini, but she has yet to win a match against Ostapenko in her career and trails the head-to-head against Rybakina.
Aryna Sabalenka will begin her 2024 US Open campaign against Australian Qualifier Priscilla Hon. The recently crowned Cincinnati champion might face Kiwi sensation Lulu Sun in the second round. Even though Sun made waves with her unprecedented run at Wimbledon, reaching the quarter-finals, Sabalenka is the favorite to win the clash.
Ekaterina Alexandrova will be the probable opponent for the second seed in the round, followed by a possible rematch of last year's semi-final against Madison Keys in the fourth Round. Sabalenka overcame Keys last year after getting bagelled by the American in the first set. Olympic gold medallist Qinwen Zheng might be the Belarusian's quarter-final opponent, in a rematch of the Australian Open final.
Sabalenka might face a problem if 24th-seeded Donna Vekic faces her in the quarter-final, as the Croatian has a 6-2 head-to-head record against the World No. 2. The Belarusian is most likely to face home favorite and third seed Coco Gauff in the semi-final in a rematch of last year's final.
The US Open is the only Slam where Swiatek and Sabalenka have played each other
Even though Swiatek and Sabalenka have played 12 times, with the Pole leading 8-4, the two have met only once on the Grand Slam stage. The duo played each other in an epic semi-final in the 2022 US Open, with Swiatek winning in three sets before winning the title against Ons Jabeur in the final.
As for her record at Flushing Meadows, Swiatek has a 16-4 record with an 80 percent match-win ratio. The World No. 1 has had the most success at this Slam, after the French Open, including a title run in 2022.
Sablenka has a 21-6 record at the US Open with 78% match wins. The Belarusian has reached at least the semi-finals at the US Open in the last three years. She lost to Leylah Fernandez and Swiatek in the 2021 and 2022 semis and then lost to Gauff in last year's final.
