Nitto ATP Finals 2018, Qualification Scenarios: How Federer can qualify for the semifinals

The Nitto ATP Finals is reaching its closing stages as the third round of the round-robin matches are scheduled to begin today.

Roger Federer, who suffered a shock straight-sets defeat to Kei Nishikori in his first encounter, came back strong to win his second match against Dominic Thiem. He has not been at his best and is looking quite sluggish on court. Nishikori and Thiem, too, have not been at their best, committing too many unforced errors.

Kevin Anderson, on the other hand, is in red-hot form, winning both his matches against Thiem and Nishikori. He was ruthless against the latter, conceding just 1 game in the entire match.

Now, with Federer and Nishikori on one win each, there are a lot of possible scenarios with regards to who can qualify for the semifinals. Anderson is the only one from the group who has more or less confirmed his spot in the semis. Thiem, who has not won a single match so far, too, has a chance to qualify.

There are two games left:

Roger Federer vs Kevin Anderson

Dominic Thiem vs Kei Nishikori

So, let's take a look at the different qualification scenarios for the Lleyton Hewitt Group:

#NittoATPFinals SF scenarios ⬇️ for @rogerfederer, @kandersonatp, @keinishikori, @ThiemDomi #ATP pic.twitter.com/K7K2qT3Lpf

— ATP World Tour (@ATPWorldTour) November 13, 2018

If Federer defeats Anderson in straight sets or in 3 sets and if Thiem defeats Nishikori, Federer will not only go on to qualify but will top the group as well with Anderson in second place.

Another way in which Federer can top the group is if he beats Anderson in straight sets and if Nishikori defeats Thiem in straight sets.

The only possible way that Anderson does not qualify for the semis is if Federer defeats him quite comprehensively, in a similar manner to which the South African had defeated Nishikori in his previous match. That seems quite unlikely though.

The problem for the Swiss Maestro arises if Nishikori wins his match against Thiem. In that case, Federer will have to defeat Anderson in straight sets. If he loses one set, he will not make it through to the semis.

On the other hand, if Anderson and Thiem both win in straight sets, the former will top the group and the second place will be decided by the highest percentage of games won, which can only be calculated once the matches are over.

If Anderson wins in 3 sets and if Thiem wins in straight sets, Anderson will top the group, with Federer in second place.

Now, if Anderson and Thiem both win in 3 sets, Federer will get knocked out and Nishikori would end up in second place.

It will become quite complicated if both Federer and Nishikori win their respective matches in straight sets. If that does happen, both the first and second place will be decided by the highest percentage of games won in the group.

And, there is no doubt about the fact that, if both Anderson and Nishikori win their matches, in either 2 or 3 sets, both of them will qualify for the semis, with Anderson on top and Nishikori at second place.

The matches will take place today, with the first one between Thiem and Nishikori taking place at 19:30 IST and the one between Federer and Anderson taking place later at night.