Novak Djokovic at ATP Finals 2023: Analyzing the Serb's chances in the year's final tournament

Novak Djokovic is the top seed at the ATP Finals and will be a heavy favorite to win. The Serb enters the year-end tournament following a victorious run at the Paris Masters where he won his seventh title.

His next aim is to win a seventh title at the ATP Finals to surpass Roger Federer and set a new record for the most number of tournament wins in the competition's history.

The Serb has been drawn in the Green Group of the year-end championships in Turin alongside Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune, and will be a heavy favorite to win considering his run of form.

On that note, let's take a look at how Djokovic could fare at the ATP Finals.

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Group Stage

#1. Jannik Sinner

Jannik Sinner is the second-highest seeded player in the group and Djokovic will face him for the fourth time, with the Serb leading 3-0 in the head-to-head.

The Italian did give him a tough fight when they faced each other in the fourth round of Wimbledon 2022 and is capable of doing the same in Turin given his form and the fact that he will have the crowd cheering for him.

Considering the playing field in the Green Group, Sinner seems like the player to challenge Djokovic the most. However, considering the way the Serb has been playing lately, he should manage to come out on top, even if it is in three sets.

#2. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Novak Djokovic will face sixth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas for the 14th time when they lock horns in Turin. The Serb currently leads 11-2 in the head-to-head, having most recently beaten him 6-3, 7-6(4), 7-6(5) in the Australian Open final.

Tsitsipas had a poor run of form until his last two tournaments at the Erste Bank Open and the Paris Masters. The Greek reached the semifinals of both tournaments before losing to Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov.

Both of Tsitsipas' wins over Djokovic came on hard courts, so one could think of the possibility of him giving the Serb a run for his money. However, even if we consider his improvement, the Greek's current form doesn't seem good enough to get a win over the World No. 1.

#3. Holger Rune

Eighth seed Holger Rune will be making his ATP Finals debut and will face Djokovic for the fifth time, with their head-to-head currently tied at 2-2.

The Dane beat the Serb in the quarterfinals of the Italian Open and recently put up a tough fight against him in the last eight of the Paris Masters. Like Tsitsipas, Rune also endured a difficult run of form but has looked resurgent lately.

Given the meetings between the two this season, there is a good chance the Dane could give Djokovic a tough fight but the Serb's resilience could see him come out on top.

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Novak Djokovic will face either Carlos Alcaraz or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals of the ATP Finals

Novak Djokovic after winning the Paris Masters

Djokovic should be able to win the Green Group and he will face the runner-up of the Red Group in the semifinals of the ATP Finals.

While the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev, and Alexander Zverev are all quite evenly matched, there is a fair chance of the former two reaching the knockouts.

If Alcaraz tops his group, this would see Djokovic take on Medvedev in the final four. The Serb put in a dominant display against the Russian in the US Open and considering how he raises his level in the latter stages of big events, we could see him come out on top again and reach the final.

Here, the Serb will most likely take on Carlos Alcaraz. The two played out some exciting matches in the finals of Wimbledon and the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, and we could see another nail-biter in Turin.

If Alcaraz is at his fittest, there is a fine chance of him beating Djokovic and winning the ATP Finals for the first time in his career.