Novak Djokovic & Carlos Alcaraz's Projected Paths to the Final at Monte-Carlo Masters 2025

Second seed Carlos Alcaraz and third seed Novak Djokovic are widely regarded as the two major favorites to potentially win this year’s first Masters event on clay, the Monte-Carlo Masters. Both players are among the very best on the surface and have already won numerous tournaments.

Djokovic has already established himself as one of the greatest clay-court players of all time, having won the French Open and all the Masters 1000 events on the surface. Carlos Alcaraz won the Paris Major last year and has already triumphed twice at the Madrid Open.

Given their quality, we can expect some stellar performances from both players at the Monte-Carlo Country Club. On that note, let us take a look at how their paths at the tournament could look like.

Carlos Alcaraz's path to the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters

Carlos Alcaraz at the Paris Olympics (Image Source: Getty)

As one of the top eight seeds, Alcaraz won’t have to play in the first round, receiving a bye. However, in the second round, the Spaniard might face either Fabio Fognini or Francisco Cerundolo, and that could a challenging prospect, especially if he faces the Argentine.

This could actually be a positive for Alcaraz, as it would give him an opportunity to be sternly tested early on, potentially benefiting his overall campaign. After that, he’s likely to face Felix Auger-Aliassime, which would be another tough matchup.

The Canadian can be a formidable opponent thanks to his clean game, including a strong serve and solid groundstrokes but his issue is inconsistency. That said, he is capable of giving the Spaniard a run for his money if he is at his best.

In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz could potentially face Andrey Rublev, a former champion at this event who has also beaten him on clay before. Another player who the 21-year-old could face in the last eight Gael Monfils, who has beaten him before and enjoys significant fan support in Monaco, which could boost his chances.

If Carlos Alcaraz reaches the semifinals, he could be up against either fifth seed Jack Draper or fourth seed Casper Ruud. Draper has been in incredible form so far this year and won his maiden Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells not long back. Casper Ruud is one of the best clay-court players in the world and will be eager to impress in Monte-Carlo after an early exit in Miami, not to forget he lost in the final of this very tournament last year.

There are quite a few players from the other half of the draw who are capable of reaching the final but there is a good chance Alcaraz could face either Novak Djokovic or Alexander Zverev if he makes it that far. Both players excel on clay and the Serb, in particular, has a pretty good chance of going to the final given his recent performance in Miami.

Zverev has not been in the best of form lately but on clay, he is a highly formidable competitor and is capable of making it to the final in Monte-Carlo. If Alcaraz faces either the German or Djokovic, we could have a thrilling encounter on our hands.

Novak Djokovic's path to the final of the Monte-Carlo Masters

Djokovic in action at the Miami Open - Source: Getty

For Novak Djokovic, his potential final opponent would almost certainly be Carlos Alcaraz, the second seed, who is expected to emerge from the other half of the draw.

As one of the top seeds, Djokovic also receives a bye and won’t play in the opening round. The Serbian will begin his campaign in the second round, most likely against Stan Wawrinka. This matchup would be a blast from the past—about a decade ago, it would have had fans buzzing with excitement.

Today, it’s likely to go only one way, but it will still be a fascinating match to watch. Djokovic might then face Grigor Dimitrov once more. On clay, this could be an interesting contest and while Dimitrov may not overcome Djokovic, he might make things competitive for a while.

Djokovic’s next opponent could vary, as he might face Tomas Machac, who has given him trouble in the past, or Sebastian Baez, who can be tricky on clay. Alternatively, it could be Alex de Minaur, who is always a challenging opponent on any surface. If the Serb reaches the semifinals, he might face Alexander Zverev, who has beaten him on clay before.

Neither Alcaraz nor Djokovic will have an easy path to the final, but if both players make it through, tennis fans will be in for a treat. Be it the Madrid Open semifinal in 2022 or the first part of the 2023 French Open semifinal, we have seen the two play some impressive tennis whenever they have locked horns on clay.