Novak Djokovic at Indian Wells 2025: What to expect from the struggling-for-form Serbian great?

Novak Djokovic was historically great at Indian Wells, but what can we expect from him in 2025 with injury woes and form issues? The simple answer would be not much, and it has little to do with injuries or his form. Indian Wells used to be a great spot for him. The first time he triumphed here was in 2008 beating Mardy Fish in the final. It was only one year after he made his maiden final there in 2007 when he lost to Rafael Nadal.

Since then, Djokovic went on to win the event in 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. It was a historic run by the Serbian who was very comfortable in Indian Wells.

Since that 2016 season, however, Djokovic has yet to make a final again. Not only that, he’s yet to make the quarterfinals, as the third round is his best result. There was also a huge gap as last year’s appearance was the first one since 2019.

There were pandemics and other stuff, but Novak Djokovic didn’t bother much with the event. He traveled there last year to try and find his form but suffered one of the most shocking defeats of his career against Luca Nardi. So what does all of this tell us about his 2025 appearance? Quite a few things. Firstly, he’s going there to try and find form, much like last year. Secondly, it tells us that the injury is technically behind him even though he did limp at the Doha airport after his Qatar Open exit.

It also tells us that Djokovic does indeed have some motivation to play events that are not Grand Slams. It doesn’t tell us how he will play because that’s the biggest question mark when it comes to him. His level in 2025 has been interesting to observe. He was fairly decent at the Australian Open, scoring a massive win over Carlos Alcaraz only to pay the price for it with his body collapsing. He looked solid in Doha but couldn’t overcome a ridiculously good Matteo Berrettini who was very keen to win that match.

Neither of these appearances was the Djokovic of old. That version of the player has been missing for a while, but the Serbian keeps searching for him.

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The likely outcome for Novak Djokovic at the 2025 Indian Wells

Novak Djokovic at ATP Qatar ExxonMobil Open Round Of 32 - Source: Getty

Predicting anything in tennis is fool’s gold, but we’ll do it anyway because a few things can be extrapolated based on our knowledge. Indian Wells as a court does fit the style of Novak Djokovic because it’s the one hard court that plays almost like clay.

Djokovic can navigate that type of court pretty well, but the problem is that other players can too. Hard-hitting players can thrive on a court like this. Carlos Alcaraz has dominated the event in the past two years.

Even with that in mind, we also know that Djokovic won’t win this event. He’s past that point at this stage of his career. The ultimate sacrifice is something he only reserves for the Grand Slams, and this event is not that. But he is expected to win a couple of matches. After all, he made the Shanghai final last year, which shows he still plays these events to win. The only difference is that he won’t give it his all as he would for a Grand Slam event.

So Novak Djokovic will win some matches at the 2025 Indian Wells Masters. The draw is vast enough and the court is slow that most players will struggle to break him down. The proper test will be if he gets to play one of the better players. What happens if he faces Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, or Alexander Zverev? Nobody is playing superb tennis right now, but that is the proper test.

All of these events for Djokovic are practices because it’s Roland Garros where he will go all out. Everything until that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things for him and the expectations should be tempered in line with that.

Fans should cherish the chance to see Djokovic again in Indian Wells because he’s missed this event many times, and who knows whether he will ever return. Even this year’s participation wasn’t guaranteed. As for the on-court product, that is one of the things that matters the least for anybody involved.