Novak Djokovic's chances of becoming World No. 1 again: Explaining how Serb can dethrone Jannik Sinner following French Open injury setback

Novak Djokovic has conceded the World No. 1 ranking to Italian rising star Jannik Sinner. He had held the position for a record 428 weeks until his recent removal.

Sinner rose to the ATP Ranking summit after the Serb withdrew from his quarterfinal match at the 2024 French Open. The 37-year-old was the defending champion at Roland Garros and needed to reach at least the semifinal to keep his World No. 1 spot.

However, a right knee injury suffered during his five-set fourth-round win over Francisco Cerundolo forced the Serb to pull out of his quarterfinal match against last year's runner-up, Casper Ruud. Djokovic will lose 1600 points and his top ATP ranking.

It will be challenging for the 24-time Grand Slam champion to surpass Jannik Sinner in the World No. 1 berth for the rest of 2024. Djokovic will have 8360 points in his bag after the French Open concludes. Out of these, he will have to defend 6700 points until the end of the 2024 ATP Tour.

This is because last year, the Belgrade native won titles at the Western & Southern Open, US Open, Paris Masters, and ATP Finals. He was also runner-up at the Wimbledon Championships. If Djokovic were to rise to the World No. 1 position, he would have to defend these titles at least, which will be a monumental task in itself given his current form.

On the other hand, if Sinner loses points in subsequent tournaments, it will also help Djokovic's case. The Italian will be defending titles at the Masters 1000 Canadian Open and ATP 500 China Open and Vienna Open. His other big points-defending tasks are Wimbledon (semifinals) and the ATP Finals (runners-up).

For one, Djokovic would need to play more tournaments in the latter half of 2024 than he did in 2023 to give himself more chances to earn points. Secondly, he would have a fresh opportunity to gain a chunk of points at the Olympic Games, which will be played in Paris from July 26. If he fails to do well in either, it will be nearly impossible for the Serb to rise to World No. 1 again this year.

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Novak Djokovic's title drought in 2024 continues after French Open exit

Picture from the 2024 French Open

Novak Djokovic's decision not to participate in his quarterfinal match at Roland Garros means that his search for a title in 2024 will continue for at least one more tournament. To the shock of many in the tennis world, the Serb has not won a title this year and suffered a few upset losses.

He began the year at the Australian Open, where his title defense ended in the semifinals. Then, at the Indian Wells Masters, he was shocked by Italy's Luca Nardi, then ranked outside the top 100, in the third round. This was followed by a semifinal exit at the Monte-Carlo Masters and a third-round ouster at the Italian Open.

The Serb played at the ATP 250 Geneva Open to gain vital game time and silverware. However, the latter goal was not fulfilled as he was defeated in the semifinals by Tomas Machac.