Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: 3 deciding factors ahead of Wimbledon 2023 final

One is a 36-year-old maestro and the other is a 20-year-old genius. They met in the French Open semis just a month back which eventually turned out to be a one-sided affair for Novak Djokovic as Carlos Alcaraz was grappling with cramps.

The encounter did show us glimpses of enthralling tennis, especially in the first two sets. Djokovic eventually won that match 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1, and with it the Roland Garros title. Tennis aficionados would be expecting an intense and exciting game when these two meet again on Centre Court this Sunday, July 16

The Wimbledon Championships are perhaps the most glamorous of all the Grand Slams. This time around, grace will be on full display in both the stands as well as also on the court. The forever-young Novak Djokovic is hunting for his eighth Wimbledon title and a 24th Major. He will be up against the zestful Spaniard Alcaraz, who many see as the future legend of the game.

Let us look at the three factors that could play a pivotal role in deciding the king of grass.

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#1 Physical and Mental Stamina

Novak Djokovic: The Championships - Wimbledon 2023

"I tried not to look at the age as a hindrance or factor that might decide the outcome on the court. On the contrary, I feel 36 is the new 26, I guess. It feels good," Djokovic said in the post-match presentation after the semifinals.

Indeed the World No. 2 is playing like a 26-year-old. Although he has played just two matches that stretched to four sets (Round of 16 and Quarterfinals), he has looked agile throughout the tournament.

Alcaraz has also looked strong, hitting ferocious forehands even off dead/slow deliveries and covering the court swiftly.

As far as mental stamina is concerned, Djokovic might have an edge. He has seen the crowd going after him throughout his career and he has learned to use this to his advantage, as any great sportsman would. Even arguments with chair umpires don't bother him much anymore.

On the other hand, Alcaraz has tenacity and aggression that can sometimes go against him. For instance, in the quarterfinals, he tried (and failed) a fast second serve on two occasions to finish off the game or set quickly. The Championship match would be a test of his patience.

#2 Volleys and Drops

Carlos Alcaraz Drop Shots: The Championships - Wimbledon 2023

For years, Wimbledon has been known for its serve-and-volley style along with smartly placed drop shots. Although the grasscourts are not as fast as they use to be, the technique can still work if used effectively with on-target first serves.

Alcaraz serves with a very natural and significant follow-through towards the opponent. This makes it easier for him to reach the net for a volley. It will be interesting to see if he attempts the same on Sunday, as Djokovic's returns are usually deep, indicating they pass well over the nets.

Djokovic has employed the serve-and-volley this season to good effect. In fact, till a couple of years back, he used it extensively, one of the few modern-day players to attempt it. In the 2021 Rolex Paris Masters, he used the serve-and-volley 22 times against Daniil Medvedev. He won a point on 19 occasions.

Alcaraz has played some majestic forehands but has also shown his deft touches while playing well-disguised drop shots. It was his key weapon even in the French Open, which was surprising to see given the nature of the court. He even recorded a whopping 23 drop shots in a match against Musetti.

Djokovic has been good at sliding and reaching the ball, picking up the drop shots, and snatching a point against each of them. He does play a beautiful drop shot but the frequency and pattern are much different. The Serbian builds long rallies and throws a drop, to disrupt the opponent's rhythm.

#3 Better First Serve Rating

First serves are crucial, especially in big matches. A 30-40% slower second serve is more likely to be returned well. If it is in the slot for a down-the-line return, the server stands a chance to lose the point.

Data shows how important first serves are and an impressive first serve rating usually translates to a win. ATP has its own 'First-Serve Rating: Grading Scale' that helps analyze a player's first serve performance in a game or a tournament.

Here's how it is ranked:

First-Serve Rating	Grade
60+	A++
55 - 59	A+
50 - 54	A
45 - 49	B+
40 - 44	B
35 - 39	C
30 - 34	D
30 & below	F

In Wimbledon 2023, Alcaraz and Djokovic have an impressive 78% and 84% first serve win percentage respectively. More importantly, the percentage of successful first serves for them is 63% and 64% respectively.

Let us calculate their first-serve rating (as prescribed by ATP)

Carlos Alcaraz

• First Serves Made = 63%

• First Serves Won = 78%

• First-Serve Rating: 63 (made) x 0.78 (won) = 49.14 (B+ grade)

Novak Djokovic

• First Serves Made = 64%

• First Serves Won = 84%

• First-Serve Rating: 64 (made) x 0.84 (won) = 53.76 (A grade)

Djokovic leads the two in first serve efficacy with an impressive A grade but Alcaraz is not far behind in terms of the rating. It could make the difference when they lock horns on Sunday.