Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal rivalry: Will fans see the duo face off for 60th time at Indian Wells 2024?

The draw for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is out, and Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have been assigned contrasting draws. While Nadal, a three-time champion, is not a seeded player in the tournament, Djokovic is the top seed and has gotten a bye in the first round. Incidentally, they are in the same half of the draw in the tournament and will not meet before the semifinals.

Nadal’s path is considerably tougher than Djokovic’s:

The Spaniard is going to face Milas Raonic of Canada in the first round and may then have to take on the tough challenge of playing against Holger Rune in the second. Italy's Lorenzo Musetti could be his opponent in the third round.

Thereafter, he is likely to face Taylor Fritz, a former champion in Indian Wells himself, and Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round and quarterfinals, respectively.

In comparison, Djokovic, a five-time champion in Indian Wells, has an easier path. He might face Aleksandar Vukic and Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the second and third rounds, respectively.

There is a potential banana skin for the Serb in the fourth round, where he could face the in-form Ugo Humbert of France, who recently won the Dubai Tennis Championships. He might then take on Norway's Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals before setting up what could be a mouth-watering 60th tour-level match between him and the Spaniard.

Could Djokovic and Nadal face each other again in Indian Wells?

It will be a delight for the viewers worldwide, no doubt. However, the chances of a 60th clash between the two happening seems to be quite slim. The Serb leads their head-to-head by the narrowest possible margin (30-29) and also leads their head-to-head in Indian Wells 3-1.

The Serb has been easily the superior player of the two on hard courts during the last decade or so. Moreover, Nadal has spent the best part of the last year recovering from injuries.

Even if he is able to overcome the potential challenge of a youthful Rune, he should find both Fritz and Medvedev to be quite a handful, as both of them are very good players on hard courts. The Spaniard did not show too many signs of a hip injury in his recent match against Carlos Alcaraz in the Netflix exhibition, but playing in a competitive match is a different thing altogether.

Hence, if one has to make a guess before the start of the tournament, then one would perhaps say that although Djokovic is an odds-on favorite to reach at least the semifinal of the tournament, Nadal would find it very difficult to do the same. Hence, the chances of a 60th clash happening between the two in Indian Wells remain very low.