Novak Djokovic weeks at World No. 1: Estimating how much longer the Serb can hold on to top spot

Novak Djokovic's campaign for an 11th Australian Open title came to an unceremonious end last month, as he lost in the semifinals to Jannik Sinner in four sets. The Serb, however, has maintained his vice-like grip on the World No. 1 position despite not being in the form of his life, and it will take quite a herculean effort to unseat him from the top.

The 36-year-old received stiff resistance from his young rival Carlos Alcaraz last year in terms of the top-ranking position on the ATP tour. Although the Serb had started the year as the numero uno, he swapped the No. 1 spot with the Spaniard thrice in March, May and June.

Novak Djokovic eventually regained the World No. 1 position for good following his fourth-career US Open triumph in September, having been the top dog in the ATP rankings for 23 weeks since then. The 24-time Major winner has now spent a record 412 weeks as the World No. 1.

But while it may seem to fans that there isn't an end in sight to his reign, there is a chance that Djokovic could vacate the No. 1 position later during the 2024 season. Currently, the Serb has an ATP rankings tally of 9,855 points, which is well above that of the rest of his top-4 peers — Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner.

The 36-year-old is also defending only 495 points till the French Open begins in late May. Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Sinner, meanwhile, are defending 3,455, 3,370, and 1,845 points in the same period, giving them little to no chances at usurping their top rival's No. 1 position.

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Novak Djokovic defending more than 6,000 ATP ranking points between May and December

Novak Djokovic poses with the 2023 French Open trophy.

The going, however, gets tougher for Djokovic from Roland Garros onwards. The Serb will be defending his Paris crown this year, meaning 2,000 points are on the line. He furthermore defends 2,000, 1,200, and 1,000 points at the US Open, Wimbledon, and the Cincinnati Open, respectively.

Carlos Alcaraz, on his part, is also defending a horde of points later in the season with a whopping 4,000 points on the line from May till September. Thus, while he is the World No. 2 at the moment, it will be a mountain for him to climb if he wants to regain the No. 1 position.

For what it's worth, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner have more-than-plausible outside chances of becoming the men's World No. 1 this season. The Russian and the Italian are defending nearly 2,290 and 2,045 points in the above period, respectively.

They are also the two most in-form players on the ATP tour in 2024 thus far. While Sinner beat the likes of Djokovic and Medvedev against all odds to win his maiden Major title in Melbourne, the former World No. 1 Russian also showed immense resilience during his campaign Down Under.

Jannik Sinner, especially, could end up giving the 24-time Major winner a lot of trouble, if he taps into the rich vein of form that saw him do well at the big tournaments after last year's US Open. The 22-year-old has won 25 of his last 27 matches, proving that he has what it takes to become the top-ranked male player in the world.

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Novak Djokovic looking to increase his rankings lead at the Indian Wells Masters in March

Novak Djokovic will make his much-awaited return to Indian Wells.

That being the case, Djokovic will certainly not make it easy for his World No. 1-position challengers. The Serb will be playing at the Indian Wells Masters next month for the first time since 2019. Thus, he can walk away with 1,000 points and pad up his tally more, provided he goes all the way at the ATP Masters event.

Moreover, the 24-time Major winner didn't win any of the three claycourt Masters-level tournaments last year. If he manages to win even one of them, it could perhaps take the World No. 1 spot out of contention.

Needless to say, the Serb will need to be on top of his game to survive the onslaught on his top position. While Jannik Sinner is possibly the favorite to challenge his reign over the ATP tour, the fact that he will also regularly face Alcaraz and Medvedev in the latter stages of big events will make for a dog-eat-dog fight.

If luck has it, the Serb could drop off from the apex of the men's rankings by the end of September. He will likely be within spitting distance of 500 weeks as the World No. 1 by then, which was an unimaginable feat a few years ago. In that context, Djokovic can perhaps take pride in what he has achieved even if he drops to No. 2 or No. 3 in the second half of this season.