Paris Masters 2019: How Rafael Nadal can clinch the Year-End No. 1 Ranking

World No. 1 and 4-time Paris Masters champion Novak Djokovic, and World No. 2 Rafael Nadal resume their tussle at the French capital this week for the 2019 Year-End No. 1 ranking.

Djokovic has a slender 320-point lead over Nadal, entering the last regular event on the ATP calendar, the Paris Masters. But regardless of results at this tournament, Djokovic would relinquish the No. 1 spot next Monday (4th November 2019) as he would have points earned last year in Paris (600) and ATP Finals in London (1000) dropping off.

Nadal did not play after the US Open last year, hence the Spaniard has no points to defend for the remainder of the season. There is a maximum of 1000 points on offer in Paris this week and 1500 points at the ATP Tour Finals in London.

Nadal, who leads Djokovic by 1280 points in the ATP Race to London, would put the race to Year-End No. 1 to rest, if he wins his first title at the Paris Masters or earns more than 220 points in the French capital than Djokovic.

The following scenarios in Paris would see the recently-married Spaniard clinch the Year-End No. 1, before the season-ending ATP Tour Finals in London:

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#1 Nadal wins the title in Paris

Djokovic and Nadal are the top two seeds in Paris and cannot meet each other before the title round. If Nadal beats Djokovic in the final, the Spaniard would have an unassailable lead of 1680 points (1280+1000-600) over the Serb.

With a maximum of 1500 points on offer for an undefeated champion at the season-ending ATP Tour Finals, Djokovic would not be able to overhaul the 1680-point deficit by going undefeated in London, even if Nadal doesn't win a match at the British capital.

#2 Nadal reaches the final in Paris, Djokovic loses before the semis

With his significant lead over Djokovic in the Race to London, a run to the final in Paris would give Nadal 600 points, for a total lead of 1880 points (1280 + 600) over Djokovic. If Djokovic loses in the quarter-finals, he would earn 180 points for his effort. This would give Nadal an effective lead of 1600 points (1880 - 180) and he can seal the Year-End No. 1 ranking.

#3 Nadal reaches the Paris semi-finals, Djokovic loses before the quarter-finals

By reaching the last-four in Paris, Nadal would earn 360 points. This would give Nadal a lead of 1640 points (1280 + 360). In this scenario, if Djokovic fails to reach the Paris quarter-finals, he would earn a maximum of 90 points (3rd round exit) or 10 points (2nd round exit). In either case, Nadal's effective lead over the Serb would be more than 1500 points and would close the race for the Year-End No. 1 ranking.

As for Djokovic, if he wins his fifth title in Paris this week, he earns 1000 points, and if Nadal loses in the second round, the Spaniard earns only 10 points. In this scenario, Djokovic would trim his deficit to 290 points [(1280 - 1000) + 10], and would seal a record-tying 6th Year-End World No. 1 by going undefeated in London.