Paris Olympics 2024: Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: (1) Novak Djokovic vs (11) Lorenzo Musetti

Date: August 2, 2024

Tournament: Paris Olympics 2024

Round: Semifinal

Venue: Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France

Category: Olympics

Surface: Clay

Live Telecast: USA - NBC, Peacock | UK - Eurosport, Discovery+, BBC iPlayer | Canada - CBC Gem, Radio Canada, Tou.tv | India - JioCinema, Sports18

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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti preview

Djokovic in action at the Paris Olympics

Top seed Novak Djokovic will face 11th seed Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals of the Paris Olympics on August, 2. The winner of the match will take on either second seed Carlos Alcaraz or 13th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the gold medal match.

The Serb entered his fifth edition of the Olympics at the back of a run to the Wimbledon final, and started with a 6-0, 6-1 drubbing of Matthew Ebden in the first round. He followed this up with a comprehensive 6-1, 6-4 win over rival Rafael Nadal to book his place in the Round of 16.

Here, the World No. 2 beat Dominik Koepfer 7-5, 6-3 to setup a quarterfinal clash against Stefanos Tsitsipas. He won 6-3, 7-6(3) to register his 11th succesive win over the Greek and reach the semifinals.

Lorenzo Musetti has had an impressive run of form lately, having reached the Wimbledon semifinals last month. The 22-year-old started his Olympic campaign with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Gael Monfils and followed it up by beating Mariano Navone 7-6(2), 6-3.

The Italian then faced seventh seed Taylor Fritz in the Round of 16 and registered a 6-4, 7-5 win to setup a quarterfinal clash aginst reigning Olympic champion and third seed Alexander Zverev. Musetti fought hard and eventually triumphed 7-5, 7-5 to beat the German and book his place in the semifinals.

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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti head-to-head

Djokovic leads 6-1 in the head-to-head against Musetti. Their last encounter came in the semifinals of this year's Wimbledon, with the Serb winning 6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4.

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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games
Novak Djokovic	-250	-1.5 (+105)	Over 22.5 (-120)
Lorenzo Musetti	+180	+1.5 (-155)	Under 22.5 (-120)

All odds are sourced from BETMGM.

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Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti prediction

Djokovic will enter the match as the favorite to win given his experience, quality and mentality. However, Musetti has given the Serb a run for his money at times on clay, so the Italian cannot be written off. Not to forget that this is also the stage at the Olympics where Djokovic has already faced three defeats.

The Serb's first-serve numbers so far in Paris have been decent, having served 20 aces while winning 106 out of 140 points (75.7%). That said, he did win just 65% of his first-serve points against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Nonetheless, Djokovic has accumulated a decent number of aces so far and will be eager to do the same against Musetti.

The Italian has slightly better first-serve statistics compared to the Serb at the Paris Olympics, having won 119 out of 156 points (76.3%) with 12 aces so far.

Given that Djokovic had more unforced errors (25) than winners (24) in his last match, Musetti would have to be solid defensively and wait for his chance to force him into making mistakes. The Italian's one-handed backhand is a key weapon and he will look to make the most out of it.

Based on head-to-head records and how he grinded out wins against Musetti at Roland Garros before, many would expect Djokovic to come out on top. However, Musetti might think of this as a golden opportunity to finally defeat the Serb in the French Open venue, having come close a couple of times.

Combining that with his clay court prowess and the fact that Djokovic is yet to win an Olympic semifinal (something that might fuel the 37-year-old too), somewhere down the line, the Italian might just about manage to get the win and confirm himself of a medal.

Pick: Musetti in three sets.