Qatar Open 2025: Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

Match Details

Fixture: Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina

Date: February 13, 2025

Tournament: Qatar Open 2025

Round: Third Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha, Qatar

Category: WTA 1000

Surface: Hard (Outdoor)

Prize Money: $3,654,963

Live Telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Sky Sports

Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina preview

Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Day Three - Source: Getty

Jessica Pegula has had a decent start to the 2025 season, having won six of her eight matches. She got through to the final in Adelaide, losing to close friend and fellow American Madison Keys to three sets. That performance assumed new relevance after Keys took the Australian Open title a few weeks later.

Pegula defeated Elina Svitolina in straight sets in the first round in Qatar, but the match was more difficult than the scoreline suggests. Jessica Pegula needed a tie-break to come through the second set.

Russian Kasatkina is ranked the world's tenth-best player by the WTA and has only dropped five games in her two Qatar matches. She put qualifier Polina Kudermetova to the sword, 6-0, 6-0, before breezing past Elina Avanesyan in straight sets to reach the third round.

Daria Kasatkina had a good run in Adelaide, reaching the quarterfinal, and performed creditably at the Australian Open, succumbing to another American, Emma Navarro, in the last 16. This match presents the pair with a tremendous opportunity - the winner will play unseeded opposition in the quarterfinal - Elise Mertens or Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina head-to-head

Pegula and Kasatkina have met three times on the WTA circuit - Pegula has two wins and Kasatkina one. Most importantly, in their only meeting on a hard court, at the Japan Open in 2023, Pegula won 6-1, 6-0.

Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap bets	Total games
Jessica Pegula	-205	-2.5 (-143)	Over 12.5 (+107)
Daria Kasatkina	+163	+2.5 (+112)	Over 11.5 (-118)

Jessica Pegula vs Daria Kasatkina prediction

Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Day Two - Source: Getty

Jessica Pegula is the clear favorite to reach her second quarterfinal of the year. Being the favorite may not count in her favor given the way the 2025 Qatar tournament has progressed, with top seeds falling by the wayside early. Pegula has the better experience, having been as high as World No. 3 in the rankings as recently as 2022.

Kasatkina has not quite realized the potential she showed as a junior (she won the junior singles French Open in 2014) and as a young professional. She was rated 32nd in the world at 18 and won her first WTA title while still a teenager - the Charleston Open in 2017.

Jessica Pegula has better form, and if she can repeat her performance against Keys in Adelaide, she should progress. Kasatkina will provide stubborn opposition, however.

PICK: Pegula to win in the three sets.