Qualification scenarios for the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals

With the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals set to take place in one month from now at the O2 Arena in London in November, a few players have already qualified for the showdown. However, given the absence of many big names who are out injured, a lot of unexpected names have the chance to qualify for the first time

In this article, we take a look at those players who have already qualified, those who will most likely qualify, and three stars who have an outside chance to make it to the top 8.

We also take a look at the four stars who will be missing out on the action due to injury.

Qualified:

Rafael Nadal: 9365 points

Rafael Nadal has had a dream season so far and has gone on to reclaim the World no. 1 ranking after many years.

After the defeat to Roger Federer down under, he reclaimed the French crown as he won the tournament for the tenth time in his career and followed that up with his 3rd US Open victory with a dominant performance in the second week of the tournament.

He will most likely end the year as the world no. 1 but will have his task cut-out as most of the tournaments which are yet to take place are indoor hard court tournaments – a surface where Nadal hasn’t found too much success.

Roger Federer: 7505 points

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The 36 year old has had the perfect season so far apart from the disappointing outing at the US Open. He began the season with the win at the Australian Open against his arch-nemesis, followed that up with the sunshine double before taking a break.

He came back fresh and was victorious at SW19 for the eighth time in his career. What made the tournament even more special was that he won it without dropping a single set. A slight back niggle cost him the title at Montreal and a sloppy performance at Flushing Meadows gave away the no. 1 rank to Nadal.

However, Federer could reclaim the top spot if he manages to win the remaining tournaments including the World Tour Finals.

Given his liking to the surface and his track record, he would go into the Finals as the firm favourite, ahead of the world no. 1 Nadal.

Alexander Zverev: 4155 points

Rogers Cup presented by National Bank - Day 10

Next-gen star Alexander ‘Sascha’ Zverev had a breakthrough season and has reached new heights in his career.

He achieved his first ever Masters title at the Rome Masters where he defeated Novak Djokovic in straight sets. His second Masters title came in Montreal where he defeated Federer in straight sets.

His performance in the Grand Slams was quite poor as he failed to reach the 2nd week in all four slams.

He is the only player who will be playing the Next-Gen ATP Finals and the ATP World Tour Finals too.

Players who are out of contention:

Novak Djokovic:

12 time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic has had a year to forget. Apart from the title at Doha right at the beginning of the year, it has gone downhill for Djokovic since then.

He was upset in the Australian Open and was thrashed by Dominic Thiem at Roland Garros. A longstanding elbow injury forced him to retire in his quarter-final match at Wimbledon which led to him withdrawing from the rest of the season.

He will be back in action at the Australian Open next year and will be ranked outside the top 10.

Andy Murray:

Just like Djokovic, Britain’s Andy Murray, too, has had a year to forget. Apart from a semi-final at Roland Garros, Murray has had nothing to show for.

He has suffered from constant hip injuries throughout the year which led to his withdrawal from the US Open and the tournaments prior to that.

He has not confirmed his absence for the rest of the year, but will most likely do so. If not, he has lost too many points and thus won't be able to qualify for the tour finals.

Stan Wawrinka:

It was a year marred with injuries and Stan Wawrinka was another addition to the unfortunate list. However, the three-time Grand Slam Champion had a few noteworthy performances which included the French Open final and Australian Open semifinals.

He also reached the final of the Indian Wells Masters where he lost to Federer. He announced his absence from the rest of the season after Wimbledon and has undergone surgery since then.

Most likely to qualify:

Dominic Thiem: 3715 points

The 24 year old powerhouse continues to impress and is in pole position to qualify for the tour finals. He matched his best Grand Slam result of 2016 by reaching the 2017 semifinals as well where he lost to Nadal, whom he had defeated at the Rome Masters.

His performance in the second half of the season hasn’t been too great but given the injuries to the big players and the points in his kitty, he should be safe.

A good performance in the remaining Masters or an ATP 250 title would guarantee his spot in the tour finals

Marin Cilic: 2995 points

The 2014 US Open Champion had a fantastic outing at SW19 where he ended as the runner-up to Federer who defeated him in straight sets.

He performed well in the tournaments prior to Wimbledon as well but has been quite sloppy of late.

He will look to gain another 500-700 points in order to confirm his qualification for the year-ending tournament.

Grigor Dimitrov: 3140 points

The 26 year old Bulgarian has had a topsy-turvy year so far. He began the year with a win in Brisbane and followed that up with a brilliant performance in the Australian Open where he lost to Nadal in a thrilling semifinal.

He did not have much to show for the rest of the year apart from his first ever Masters victory in Cincinnati just before the US Open.

He will look to make the most of the absence of the big guns and make a mark for himself in the remaining tournaments.

Players who are likely to fight for the last 2 spots:

Pablo Carreno Busta: 2595 points

The Spaniard had a breakthrough season with some exceptional performances throughout the year. He made the semis of the US Open where he lost to eventual runner-up Kevin Anderson.

Currently, in 7th position with 2595 points, Carreno Busta will need another 1000 points or so to qualify. He will face a tough task to do so with the immense competition for the final two spots and given the fact that he lost in the first round of the China Open recently.

Sam Querrey: 2435 points

The Big American too had a breakthrough season and has been powering his way to the latter stages of tournaments all throughout the year. He reached the semifinals of Wimbledon and followed that up with a quarter-final appearance in the US Open.

With 2435 points to his name, he will look to take advantage of the indoor hard court season and be the first American to qualify for the tour finals since Roddick in 2009.

Kevin Anderson: 2380 points

The tall, lanky South African made headlines after finishing as the runner-up in this year’s US Open. He performed well throughout the year and will look to continue his fine run of form in the final quarter of the season as well.

With 2380 points, he has a tough task ahead of him, but just like Querrey, he too will enjoy playing on the indoor hard-courts with his big serves and big hitting. Ideally, he should gain another 1000-1200 points to qualify.

Players who will find it difficult to qualify:

David Goffin: 2285 points

Belgium’s David Goffin would feel extremely hard done with the unfortunate injury he picked up during theFrench Open which ruled him out of action till after the Wimbledon. He lost a lot of points due to this and now finds himself in a rather tough spot.

However, he is back in form and will be looking to help his country win the Davis Cup this year. He might skip a tournament or two in order to prepare for the World Cup of tennis and in doing so, might miss out on qualifying for the tour finals.

He currently has 2285 points to his name and quite a few points to defend from last year.

Tomas Berdych: 2005 points

He was a constant in the Top 8 for many years but the 32-year-old Czech is not the player he once was. He has produced some noteworthy performances this year showing what he is truly made of. He reached the semifinals of Wimbledon this year where he lost to Federer.

With 2005 points in his kitty, he will have to surely win a Masters and another tournament or two in order to qualify for the finals.

Nick Kyrgios: 1700 points

On one hand, the supremely talented 22 year old has produced some magic on the court this year. Unfortunately, on the other hand, he has produced equally poor performances as well. He has been in the news due to his attitude on the court and has been fined on a number of occasions for the same.

However, he looks rejuvenated after the US Open and if the Laver Cup is anything to go by, he could be the one to look out for, for the rest of the season. He can demolish any opponent on his day and go on to achieve great things in his career.

He has only 1700 points to his name but given the fact that he hardly has any points to defend, he could be the surprise entry into the top 8 for the tour finals.

Milos Raonic: 1805 points

Last year’s Wimbledon finalist had a forgetful year and faced constant injuries which kept him out of many tournaments.

His best result was reaching the Wimbledon quarter-finals where he lost to Federer in straight sets.

Currently, on 1805 points, Raonic will have to put in a lot of effort in order to make the cut for the final showdown in London. He also has quite a few points to defend from last year.